Understanding the Vulnerabilities of Ceuta and Melilla
Ceuta and Melilla, two autonomous cities located on the northern coast of Africa, are approximately 4,600 kilometers away from Tehran in a straight line. Under normal circumstances, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East should not have a significant impact on these Spanish enclaves, apart from the inflationary pressures stemming from rising hydrocarbon prices. However, the reality is quite different, as the war against Iran has begun to cast a shadow over both cities. The stance taken by the Spanish government regarding this geopolitical conflict has provided a platform for various analysts associated with pro-Israel think tanks to advocate for punitive measures against Spain, suggesting that it should relinquish what they term its 'last colonies'—namely, Ceuta and Melilla.
Chama Mechtaly, founder of the Emma Lazarus Institute, has raised concerns about Spain's vulnerabilities in this context, identifying Ceuta and Melilla as the most susceptible targets in the nation. She posits that instead of imposing commercial sanctions on Spain, the United States could easily revisit the question of these colonial relics, thereby humiliating the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, while simultaneously rewarding an ally like Morocco. This line of thinking was echoed by Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official, who encouraged King Mohammed VI of Morocco to undertake a 'Green March' to reclaim Ceuta and Melilla, reminiscent of the actions taken by his father, Hassan II, in 1975 during the Western Sahara conflict. Rubin even suggested the expulsion of approximately 165,000 residents from these cities, framing it as a potential ethnic cleansing.
Such provocations from figures like Rubin have not gone unnoticed; they have sparked discomfort among many Moroccans. Yahya Yahya, founder of the now-defunct Committee for the Liberation of Ceuta and Melilla, criticized the American commentator for politicizing a matter that is fundamentally internal to Morocco. This highlights a broader narrative wherein external pressures are exerted on Spain to alter its position regarding Israel, and by extension, its relationship with Morocco.
Potential Strategies for Strengthening Ceuta and Melilla
The reality of vulnerability is acknowledged by Morocco, as demonstrated by a significant increase in irregular immigration to Ceuta—averaging 21 individuals per day, totaling 1,604 in the first two and a half months of 2026, which is a staggering 503% increase compared to the same period last year. Morocco has the capacity to replicate the peaceful migration invasion seen in May 2021, when over 10,000 irregular migrants entered Ceuta in less than 48 hours, allegedly with the support of Moroccan security forces. This situation serves as a stark reminder of the precarious status of these Spanish territories.
It is essential for both the Spanish government and civil society in Ceuta and Melilla to recognize the implications of these geopolitical dynamics and take proactive measures to fortify their positions. The government must move beyond merely asserting the Spanish identity of Ceuta and Melilla; it needs to implement concrete strategies that address the current threats faced by these cities. Six actionable recommendations could be considered:
- Initiate constitutional reforms to formally recognize Ceuta and Melilla within the Spanish Constitution, a proposal that was part of the PSOE electoral program in 2004 but has yet to be realized.
- Arrange a royal visit to Ceuta and Melilla; the Spanish monarchy has not set foot in these cities since 2007, despite touring other autonomous regions post-pandemic.
- Advance the inclusion of Ceuta and Melilla in the European Union's Committee of the Regions, allowing them a voice in EU matters.
- Negotiate the cities' re-entry into the EU customs union, which they had opted out of in 1986, to facilitate smoother economic interactions with Morocco.
- Implement a comprehensive security plan for Ceuta and Melilla that was announced in May 2021 but has yet to be executed.
- Adopt significant tax reductions to alleviate the economic burdens imposed by Morocco, including lowering income tax rates and incentivizing business investments.
While the responsibility to safeguard Ceuta and Melilla lies primarily with the Spanish government, local political parties and civil society must also play a vital role in asserting their Spanish identity and advocating for their interests on both national and international platforms. Historical evidence shows that when movements advocating for incorporation into Morocco emerged in the 1980s and 1990s, they were overwhelmingly defeated at the polls, underscoring the desire of residents to remain Spanish.
In light of the provocative statements made by Michael Rubin and his associates, it is concerning that there has been a lack of robust public discourse on this issue. Only the smaller political party Ceuta Ya! has called for a discussion in the Ceuta Assembly on how to defend their rights. In contrast, larger parties like the PP and PSOE often dismiss the problem, relying on historical and constitutional arguments that hold little weight in contemporary geopolitics.
As Morocco continues to consolidate its diplomatic successes, particularly following favorable UN Security Council resolutions, it is likely that they will reignite their claims over Ceuta and Melilla, especially after the 2030 World Cup co-hosted with Spain. Thus, preemptive measures to strengthen these cities are not just prudent but essential for their future stability and security.
As reported by elconfidencial.com.
