The Maghreb region, once known for its robust population growth, is now experiencing an unprecedented decline in birth rates. Recent data from the National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined), published in late May and highlighted by CNews, reveals that fertility rates are falling across Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, with the numbers dipping below the generational replacement threshold in both Morocco and Tunisia.
In the 1970s, women in the Maghreb typically had an average of seven to eight children. However, this figure has halved since the early 1990s and continues to decline. As of 2024, Tunisia reports a fertility index of 1.53 children per woman, while Morocco stands at 1.97, and Algeria at 2.61. Notably, Algeria experienced a temporary demographic rebound between 2000 and 2017, where the average rose above three children per woman. Tunisia also saw a slight increase, reaching 2.4 children per woman in 2014, before it too began to fall again, while Morocco has shown a consistent downward trend since the 1990s.
Factors Behind the Decline and Its Consequences
Several key factors contribute to this demographic shift. Firstly, the lengthening of educational pursuits has led to a later entry into the workforce, consequently pushing back the average age of marriage. In Tunisia, for instance, women marry at an average age of 28.9 years. Furthermore, the use of contraception has become widespread, with 71% of married Moroccan women, 55% of Tunisian women, and 50% of Algerian women utilizing contraceptive methods. The decline in birth rates is inevitably leading to an aging population. In Tunisia, the proportion of individuals aged 60 and over has increased from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024, while Morocco and Algeria report figures of 13.8% and 10.5%, respectively. This demographic shift signifies a gradual reduction in the natural balance, which measures the difference between births and deaths.
As reported by lejdd.fr.
