Declining Birth Rates and Demographic Changes in North Africa
The northern African countries are facing a significant and unprecedented decline in birth rates, which appears to be stabilizing in the long term. This trend suggests a gradual aging of the population and a slowdown in demographic growth across the region. According to the National Institute of Demographic Studies, there has been a simultaneous and rapid drop in fertility rates in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, with the number of children per woman decreasing from 7 or 8 in the 1970s to nearly half that number by the early 1990s.
As of 2024, Morocco's fertility rate has reached a historically low level of 1.97 children per woman. Meanwhile, Tunisia recorded a rate of 1.58 in 2023, which is projected to decline further to 1.53 in 2024. Algeria's rate is slightly higher, at 2.61 children per woman in 2024. This decline poses a demographic shift that economist Badr Zaher Al-Azraq notes will have significant economic repercussions in the coming years. Historically, Morocco has benefited from a large base of young individuals capable of contributing to the workforce, production, and consumption. However, the ongoing decline in birth rates could lead to a shrinking labor force and an increase in the elderly population, thereby placing greater pressure on pension systems, social protection, and public finances.
Future Challenges and Economic Implications
Al-Azraq emphasizes that the real challenge lies in enhancing productivity and investing in education, training, and innovation. Additionally, improving the economic and social conditions for the youth, particularly concerning employment, housing, and family stability, has become critical, as these factors are primary contributors to delayed marriage and declining birth rates. Regarding the recruitment of foreign labor, the economist suggests that this option may gain considerable importance in the future if current demographic trends continue. Similar to several emerging economies, Morocco may need foreign labor to fill gaps in certain sectors, particularly with the growth of industrial and logistical investments. He adds that the success of this approach will be closely linked to the Kingdom's ability to manage migration in an organized manner, achieving a balance between economic needs and social integration requirements.
The High Commission for Planning has confirmed that the fertility rate among Moroccans has fallen below the minimum threshold, currently recording a rate of 1.92, while the latest study indicates 1.8. Regardless of which rate is accurate, the current social reality unfortunately reflects a significant decline in fertility due to both direct and indirect factors.
As reported by larazon.es.
