Forecast for Treasury Debt in Morocco
According to a recent report by the "Commercial Global Research" center, Morocco's treasury debt is expected to reach 1.211 billion dirhams by the end of 2026, an increase from 1.156 billion dirhams in 2025. This projection is detailed in the latest report titled "Budget Focus" released in January 2026, which outlines anticipated developments in the budget as per the financial law for the upcoming year. The report indicates that the treasury is likely to control the budget deficit, which is projected to be 55.4 billion dirhams in 2026, equivalent to 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
Delving deeper into the specifics, it is estimated that domestic debt will reach 887 billion dirhams by 2026, reflecting an increase of 4.5% compared to the end of 2025. Meanwhile, external debt is also expected to rise by 5.7%, moving from 307 billion dirhams in 2025 to 324 billion dirhams in 2026. As of the end of January, the total debt had already reached 1.171 billion dirhams, with domestic components standing at 863 billion dirhams and external components at 308 billion dirhams.
According to the center, the share of external debt from the total treasury indebtedness is anticipated to remain stable at 26% by the end of January 2026, before slightly increasing to 27% by the end of the year. This level aligns well with the reference range provided by the "Commercial Global Research" center, which is between 25% and 30%. Taking into account the growth forecasts presented in the 2026 financial law, the treasury is expected to maintain the debt ratio at 65.5% of GDP by 2026, stabilizing at 63.4% by the end of January 2026.
As reported by thevoice.ma.
