According to Zbigniew Brzezinski, it is essential to differentiate between states that possess the capability to alter, shape, or modulate the status quo and those that, lacking such power, occupy a position that can influence the actions of major powers merely by their presence. The former are classified as strategic players, while the latter are termed geopolitical pivots. Historically, Spain was considered a strategic player until 1898; however, in contemporary geopolitics, its role is more aligned with that of a geopolitical pivot—defining access conditions for significant players in vital areas, denying resources, and acting as a defensive shield for crucial states or regions. This dynamic is particularly relevant given Spain's geographical positioning as one of the two vital peripheries of the world.
Spain's strategic location influences not only maritime security in the Strait of Gibraltar but also the flow of transportation across the East-West axis. Furthermore, it serves as an excellent platform for projecting military forces into Eurasia while also maintaining its significant role in European relations with Latin America. As Brzezinski articulated in his seminal work, 'The Grand Chessboard,' the geographical position of a state is a pivotal factor shaping its foreign policy. Napoleon famously stated that understanding a state's geographical disposition would allow one to predict its foreign policy trajectory. Spain is characterized by its peninsula, two archipelagos, two autonomous cities in North Africa, and a vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 1.2 million square kilometers—more than double the land area of the country.
Since 1999, Spain has initiated three files to expand its EEZ, which would encompass nearly 500,000 additional square kilometers. These expansions include areas to the north of Galicia and south of the previous zone, as well as a proposal in 2014 to extend the limits of the Spanish continental shelf west of the Canary Islands, adding 296,500 square kilometers in the Atlantic. This area includes approximately 10,000 square kilometers southwest of Madeira, which Portugal also claims. The disputed region between Spain and Morocco, particularly the Tropic Mountain, is rich in valuable metals for the tech industry, such as tellurium and cobalt.
Historically, the sea has been integral to Spain's presence in the Americas and Asia over the past three centuries. With a coastline extending 7,661 kilometers and 40% of its population residing near the sea, Spain boasts 46 state ports, three of which rank among the busiest in Europe. It is the eighth country in global maritime connectivity, possessing the strategic Strait of Gibraltar, which accommodates approximately 110,000 ships annually. Thus, Spain is intrinsically a maritime nation. Alfred Thayer Mahan identified six critical factors for any nation aspiring to become a maritime power: geographical position, territorial configuration, extent, population quantity and character, and the type of governance. Regrettably, Spain falls short in the latter aspect.
Spain's dominant position in the Strait of Gibraltar should serve as the cornerstone of its geopolitical strategy. This crucial chokepoint is home to the Rock of Gibraltar, classified by the United Nations as a Non-Self-Governing Territory pending decolonization, considered the last colonial territory of its kind in Europe. Regaining sovereignty over this piece of Spanish territory should be a priority for any government. The Brexit situation presented a unique opportunity for reclaiming it, but instead, it merely provided respite to the inhabitants of the Rock.
For years, allowing thousands of tons of rock from Spanish quarries to be transported for land expansion is a matter that requires accountability. Gibraltar has been dumping its waste into the sea for centuries without intervention from Spanish or European authorities. Additionally, under the pretext of a pandemic, they have usurped the isthmus and constructed an airport on that territory. In waters that were never ceded by the Treaty of Utrecht, they engage in bunkering operations and boast that the treaty signed with Spain does not alter this practice.
Across the Strait, the Russian phantom fleet conducts crude oil transfers north of Ceuta in international waters, evading sanctions imposed by the EU and the G7. Moreover, drug trafficking mafias have turned the southern coast of Spain into a lawless zone, where a reform of current laws could effectively dismantle these armed gangs, responding firmly to their provocations and violence.
In March 2022, the current Spanish Prime Minister made a radical shift in Spain's position after 50 years by accepting Morocco's thesis regarding the future of Western Sahara. This decision followed two years of deteriorating Hispano-Moroccan relations, culminating in May 2021 with an invasion of 10,000 people crossing irregularly into Ceuta with the Moroccan gendarmerie's consent. Possible motivations behind the government’s change in stance could relate to the espionage scandal that affected members of the government, including the Prime Minister himself, around April 2021. The culmination of this crisis was marked by a photo taken during an April 2022 dinner to resolve the situation, where the Spanish flag appeared upside down, unnoticed by any of the patriotic representatives present.
In May 2022, Spain ratified its new stance on Western Sahara, and Morocco agreed to establish customs in Ceuta and to reopen the one previously existing in Melilla, commitments that have yet to be fulfilled. Despite Morocco’s attempts to assert control, the airspace over the Sahara remains managed by Spanish air traffic controllers from the Canary Islands. For the UN, Western Sahara is a non-self-governing territory pending decolonization. Losing control of the airspace and allowing Moroccan dominance over Sahara waters would pose significant threats to the Canary Islands and access to the Strait.
In 1985, the Spanish merchant fleet comprised 601 vessels and 5 million gross tons. By 2025, the fleet registered under the Spanish flag (Special Registry of the Canary Islands, REC) consisted of only 84 ships, with none being container ships. For the first time in history, Spain has fewer than 90 merchant vessels under its national flag, with less than 2 million gross tons, a decline not seen in 22 years. Conversely, the number of ships owned by Spanish companies under foreign flags increased from 114 to 119. The fishing fleet has also seen a dramatic reduction from 20,209 vessels and 687,000 tons in 1989 to 8,549 vessels and 320,000 tons in 2025.
In 2023, Morocco launched its so-called IRA strategy, positioning itself as a tri-continental geoeconomic hub connecting Africa, Europe, and America through its Atlantic façade. This plan encompasses ports such as Tangier Med, Nador Sud, Casablanca, and Dajla Atlantic, among others. The Spanish government has shown no response, particularly regarding the modernization of ports, including rail and road access for those in Algeciras and Valencia, which are now threatened by Moroccan ports. Furthermore, Spain has not taken steps to prevent Marsa Maroc’s purchase in 2025 of 45% of Boluda Maritime Terminals, a subsidiary of the Spanish group Boluda.
Through this acquisition, the Moroccan company gained access to nine terminals in Spanish ports: Las Palmas, Tenerife, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, La Palma, Sevilla, Cádiz, Vilagarcía, and Santander. One of the partners in this acquisition (35%) is the Tangier Med Port Authority, which has been the main competitor against Algeciras and Valencia over the last decade. Additionally, the ports of Valencia and Bilbao have Chinese capital investments, with 51% of CSP Valencia and 39.5% of CSP Bilbao. In Barcelona, the management of the largest container terminal is held by the Chinese Hutchison Ports BEST, which serves as the entry point for Chinese vehicles into the Mediterranean.
The current government's crusade against Israel and the United States has led to a ban on docking in Spanish ports for vessels carrying alleged cargo destined for Israel and has prohibited the use of the Rota Base for American military flights to the Gulf region. This has prompted a backlash from Israel and the U.S., with American politicians suggesting the abandonment of the Rota and Morón bases. Additionally, the government’s favorable stance toward communist regimes in Latin America (Cuba, Venezuela, Mexico, Bolivia, etc.) undermines Spain's leadership image both in the region and globally.
As reported by defensa.com.
