Shifting Dynamics in Energy Trade
Thousands of kilometers away from the Strait of Gibraltar, the Strait of Hormuz is once again disrupting the global energy balance. However, beyond geopolitical tensions, the implications extend beyond global oil supplies, impacting regional energy relations, particularly between Morocco and Spain. In this context, the relationship between these two nations has taken on a renewed dimension, characterized by an increasing integration of their energy systems. For the first time, Morocco and Spain are engaging in bidirectional exchanges of electricity and gas. This assertion, recently made by Morocco's Minister of Energy Transition, Leila Benali, is significant, indicating a structural shift in a historically north-to-south flow relationship.
This new equilibrium exists within a particularly fragile environment. The rising tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have placed energy at the center of global geopolitics, necessitating a reevaluation not only of global dependencies but also of regional balances. This intersection of international crisis and bilateral dynamics situates the energy relationship between Morocco and Spain as a genuine barometer of their ability to absorb external shocks.
Electricity and Gas Interconnections
For several decades, Spain has been a key energy supplier for Morocco. The electrical interconnections, operational since the late 1990s and expanded to 1,400 megawatts (MW), have allowed Spain to cover up to 15% of Morocco's electricity demand at various times, with volumes approaching 5 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. Alongside this electrical dependency, Morocco has also become reliant on fossil fuels. Following the closure of its only refinery in 2015, Spain emerged as one of Morocco's primary suppliers of refined products, exporting nearly one billion euros worth each year. More recently, the reversal of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline flow has added another layer to this relationship, facilitating gas deliveries from the Iberian Peninsula to Morocco.
The most recent data illustrates the intensity of these exchanges. In 2025, Spain exported over 10,300 GWh of gas to Morocco, with relatively stable monthly flows ranging between 800 and 1,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh). Concurrently, Moroccan electricity imports reached 3,750 GWh by the end of that same year, reaffirming substantial dependency at certain operational moments.
In this context of increasing integration, the crisis in the Gulf introduces a decisive variable. Contrary to what one might assume about the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy trade, its impact on Morocco manifests more significantly in terms of pricing rather than supply. "Even though petroleum products account for half of the 25 million tons of energy consumed in Morocco, only a third of diesel and one twelfth of gasoline were imported from Gulf countries in 2024," explains Amine Bennouna, an energy expert. The Kingdom also possesses a certain degree of short-term flexibility, allowing it to weather immediate shocks better than expected, especially given the 53 days of consumption it had in stock at the onset of hostilities.
The real danger lies elsewhere, particularly concerning prices. "In terms of pricing, we are on the front lines of the shock, especially since even our national distributors are speculating by implementing anticipated price hikes at the pump," he warns. The connection between the Middle Eastern crisis and the energy systems of Western Mediterranean countries primarily operates through international markets. Despite its refining capabilities, Spain remains subject to the same pricing whims.
This point is crucial for understanding the bilateral relationship. More than just a direct transmission channel, the energy link between the two nations functions as an interconnected system, capable of either cushioning or amplifying external shocks. Morocco's integration into the European electrical system has bolstered its grid resilience while simultaneously exposing it to market volatility. "European electricity markets are completely tied to international markets, meaning the source of volatility is not European but global," observes the expert. This integration entails acceptance of its rules, and once one agrees to the principles of a market based on supply and demand and adheres to the European electricity market, one accepts exposure to its volatility.
Despite the bidirectional nature of exchanges, the reality remains marked by significant asymmetry, with nearly 90% of electrical flows in 2025 moving from Spain to Morocco. However, this does not preclude occasional reverse flows. "With Spain accounting for 90% of the exchanges in 2025, it would be somewhat presumptuous to speak of Morocco as a stabilizing role in all situations," acknowledges Bennouna. Nonetheless, he nuances this observation, noting that Andalusia appreciated the 200 GWh it requested from Morocco in 2025, as well as the timely support Morocco provided in April 2025 to help restore power during a blackout in the Iberian Peninsula.
One of the most striking elements of this evolution lies in the nature of the exchanges, which now fully adhere to a commercial logic rather than one of assistance. "Even though gas exchanges are unidirectional, the exchange of electricity and gas operates within this commercial framework," insists Bennouna. In this perspective, these flows contribute to Morocco's energy supply diversification and should not be viewed as a source of vulnerability.
In the short term, the effects of the crisis will largely depend on its evolution. An extension of tensions could increase pressure on prices and, by extension, on the energy bill. "The impact on Morocco's energy bill will likely remain limited if the duration of the Israeli-American attack on Iran is short," estimates Bennouna, before underscoring a fundamental truth: "The reorganization of global energy product flows does not happen overnight." As reported by fr.le360.ma.
