Morocco Strengthens Its Military Capabilities
Morocco is poised to make significant advancements in its military capabilities, bolstered by support from both the United States and Israel. The imminent arrival of U.S. HIMARS rocket launchers and ATACMS projectiles, along with the potential acquisition of the Israeli-developed David's Sling air defense system and LORA ballistic missiles, signals a strategic modernization effort that Spain must closely monitor. Current negotiations for fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets further enhance this modernization initiative, indicating a substantial shift in the military landscape of North Africa.
In addition to this potential new armament, Morocco is advancing the IRIFI system, an autonomous attack drone developed in collaboration with the French company Harmattan AI. With a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, this project, although still in development, demonstrates Rabat's ambition to expand its attack capabilities and access cutting-edge technologies that are reshaping modern warfare.
While Spain currently maintains a significant military advantage, it cannot assume this status will remain without proactive measures. The combination of precision long-range missiles, advanced air defense systems, drones, and new combat aircraft could enable Morocco to alter the current strategic dynamics in North Africa, with implications especially pertinent to the Strait of Gibraltar, the western Mediterranean, and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla.
Advanced Defense Systems and Regional Implications
The potential integration of the David's Sling system, capable of neutralizing aerial threats up to 300 kilometers away, would significantly enhance Morocco's defense against ballistic missiles, drones, and various aircraft. This interest arises at a time when conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have highlighted the vulnerability of military installations to unmanned systems, saturation attacks, and low-cost munitions.
Morocco has already deployed aerial defense systems from Tel Aviv, such as the Barak MX developed by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), to counter threats from aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and certain tactical missiles. Additionally, Morocco has acquired the Skylock Dome anti-drone defense system, which collectively would provide stronger protection for military installations and strategic infrastructure.
For Spain, Morocco's military advancements necessitate close monitoring of the evolution of these systems and their integration into surveillance, command, and control networks. It is not just the types of weapons Morocco acquires that matter, but how they are integrated and the capacity developed to employ them in a coordinated manner. The effectiveness of an air defense system relies on a combination of interceptors, sensors, available munitions, and the ability to respond to simultaneous attacks.
The most tangible boost to Morocco's ground firepower lies in long-range artillery. The U.S. has authorized the sale of 18 HIMARS launchers and 40 ATACMS M57 tactical missiles, which have a range of up to 300 kilometers, along with guided GMLRS rockets. Valued at up to $524 million, deliveries are expected to commence next year, significantly enhancing the Moroccan Army's ability to strike distant targets with precision munitions.
Furthermore, Morocco could amplify this capability with the LORA ballistic missile, developed by IAI and boasting a range of over 400 kilometers. The IRIFI system, presented at the Marrakech Air Show, is designed for deep precision strikes with an announced range of up to 2,000 kilometers, targeting command centers, airfields, logistics depots, and critical infrastructure. Its architecture includes a mobile launcher in a container and navigation that does not rely on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), designed to operate effectively in environments where positioning signals may be disrupted.
While still in development, the IRIFI project illustrates a trend that Spain must closely observe: Morocco aims to integrate precision conventional weapons with autonomous systems capable of functioning in electronic warfare scenarios.
In the aerial domain, potential access to the F-35 would represent one of the most significant changes for Morocco. Local media outlets reported earlier this month on a request to Washington for training Moroccan pilots to operate the aircraft. This interest underscores Rabat's aspiration to acquire the fifth-generation fighter jet, although it does not confirm that the U.S. has authorized its sale. Should Morocco succeed in incorporating the F-35, its air force would gain a platform with low observability, advanced sensors, and the ability to fuse information and operate in environments with sophisticated air defenses.
Spain would need to evaluate the implications of Morocco potentially acquiring the F-35 for air balance in the Strait and the western Mediterranean. The Spanish Air and Space Force operates Eurofighter Typhoons and F/A-18 Hornets and plans to incorporate 45 new Eurofighters through the Halcón I and II programs. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense is reconsidering its plans for a sixth-generation fighter after the setback of the FCAS program.
While the arrival of the F-35 would not automatically grant Morocco air superiority, its effectiveness would depend on training, aircraft availability, system integration, and logistical support. Nonetheless, it would represent a technological shift significant enough to warrant a thorough assessment of its implications for Spanish defense.
The ongoing rearmament of Morocco is particularly sensitive to Spain due to Rabat's historical claims over Ceuta and Melilla. While Morocco maintains its sovereignty claims over these cities, this position does not inherently indicate an intention to use force. However, caution must not be confused with complacency; Spain needs to incorporate the evolution of Moroccan capabilities into its defense planning for Ceuta, Melilla, the Strait, and adjacent maritime areas.
The combination of precision missiles, drones, advanced aviation, and state-of-the-art air defenses obliges Spain to study more complex scenarios and ensure its surveillance, protection, and response capabilities are up to date. The threat is not limited to conventional conflict; hybrid actions—ranging from the manipulation of migration flows to disinformation, cyberattacks, and sabotage—can be utilized to exert political pressure without triggering open military confrontation.
The general in reserve, Francisco José Dacoba, former director of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, warned that while Spain's advantage remains appreciable, it is diminishing: "I believe we still have an acceptable gap in our favor, but it is also true that it is closing because Morocco's latest acquisitions are substantial." Spain retains structural advantages in naval capabilities, strategic projection, and industrial base, with five F-100 frigates, the forthcoming F-110s, and S-80 class submarines, in addition to the amphibious assault ship and aircraft carrier Juan Carlos I. In contrast, Morocco has a smaller surface fleet and lacks equivalent submarine capabilities.
However, this advantage does not eliminate the need for preemptive measures. Military superiority must be maintained through the modernization of platforms, availability of munitions, training, integration of sensors and command systems, and the capability to sustain prolonged operations.
The rearmament of Morocco cannot be understood without considering Algeria, its main strategic rival in North Africa. The rivalry between the two countries, fueled by the dispute over Western Sahara, the breakdown of diplomatic relations, and competition for regional hegemony, drives an arms race in which Rabat strengthens ties with the U.S. and Israel, while Algeria maintains close military cooperation with Russia and allocates significant resources to modernizing its air, land, and missile capabilities.
According to the latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), published in April 2026, Algeria's military spending reached $25.4 billion in 2025, compared to Morocco's $6.3 billion.
Algeria allocated $25.4 billion to defense in 2025, an 11% increase from $21.8 billion in 2024, while Morocco raised its defense budget to $6.3 billion, marking a 6.6% increase from the previous year. Together, both countries accounted for approximately $31.7 billion in defense spending, within a total military expenditure of $35 billion in North Africa. This accounts for nearly 91% of the regional total, confirming that the rivalry between Algiers and Rabat is the primary driver of military expenditure in the Maghreb.
The potential incorporation of advanced systems like the F-35, ballistic missiles, or air defense and anti-drone technologies would elevate pressure on Algeria and could accelerate new military acquisitions. This arms race introduces a second geopolitical dimension for Spain: in addition to monitoring the evolution of Morocco's military capabilities and their implications for Ceuta, Melilla, and the Strait, Madrid must also keep track of regional competition capable of altering the strategic balance throughout the Maghreb.
The modernization of Morocco's military capabilities is supported by an increasingly close relationship with Washington and Tel Aviv. The U.S. provides access to advanced combat systems and reinforces military cooperation with Rabat, while Israel contributes technology in air defense, drone warfare, and other specialized fields. This collaboration expands Morocco's military options but also creates dependence on foreign suppliers for maintenance, upgrades, and the provision of components and munitions. The real extent of this capability will depend on export authorizations and contract execution.
Spain, for its part, reinforces its role in the allied architecture. The Naval Base in Rota welcomed the U.S. destroyer USS John Basilone on October 14, completing the permanent deployment of six ships of this type at the Cádiz facility. The Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are equipped with the Aegis combat system and can conduct air and missile defense missions as well as anti-submarine and maritime security operations. Their presence contributes to the protection of Europe against certain ballistic threats, but it does not constitute an automatic shield against any potential conflict scenario.
Spain's membership in NATO provides a framework for collective defense, although the implementation of Article 5 would depend on specific circumstances and should not be interpreted as an automatic guarantee for any situation related to Ceuta and Melilla. The strategic message is clear: Spain maintains a military advantage over Morocco, but it must closely monitor an arms buildup that combines advanced purchases, technological cooperation, and new attack systems. The possible incorporation of David's Sling, long-range missiles, and the F-35 does not indicate an imminent threat, but underscores the need for vigilance and strategic foresight.
As reported by elespanol.com.
