The recent large-scale assault at the Ceuta border has raised significant alarm among the business sector. In recent years, trade relations between Spain and Morocco had strengthened considerably, particularly following the diplomatic reconciliation between Rabat and Madrid, which culminated in 2025 with the complete reopening of commercial customs. With hopes that political relations would stabilize, companies had decided to reinvigorate their commercial operations across the two nations. However, the current situation has left these businesses anxiously observing the unfolding events. For years, Rabat has been applying pressure on Spain and, by extension, the European Union, through its border assault policy, which has now reached a critical point. Furthermore, Brussels has shifted its approach to community trade relations, showing less fervor for free trade and increasingly prioritizing the protection of its internal market.
A prime example of this shift is the so-called "overcapacity instrument," which allows the EU to impose restrictions and tariffs on imports to safeguard local industries. Such policies were unthinkable less than five years ago but are now gaining traction within the EU. The first product to be protected under this new regulatory framework is steel, which is now subject to a 50% tariff on imports exceeding 18.34 million tons. With trade liberalization no longer a top priority, the EU may leverage commerce as a means of exerting pressure on Morocco in light of the current migratory wave that threatens the territorial integrity of the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone. Rabat has much at stake, especially if Brussels decides to apply pressure in response to this crisis.
In the first five months of this year, the value of goods crossing the border exceeded €10 billion, marking the fastest time this figure has been reached in historical records. This surge can be attributed to the rapid growth of bilateral trade in recent years, with the Moroccan market almost rivaling the U.S. market for Spanish companies. Since 2021, when the Ceuta border was closed, trade has skyrocketed by 46%. Compared to 2022, the first year with the border open, accumulated growth stands at 17%. This growth was fueled by expectations that both countries would bolster their diplomatic ties. However, the recent border assault poses a significant problem for many CEOs in Spain. During these initial months of the year, 14,200 companies have engaged in trade across the border, with the majority being Spanish—11,100 compared to 3,000 Moroccan firms.
The disparity in numbers can be attributed to the vast number of Spanish SMEs operating in Morocco, whereas the reverse trend is dominated by larger companies responsible for significant export volumes.
European Crisis and Geopolitical Tensions
The European Union is now closely monitoring the southern border, with 22 member capitals criticizing Spain for allegedly creating a pull effect through the regularization of immigrants. The interior ministers of the 27 EU countries are set to hold an emergency meeting to address the migration crisis, particularly focusing on whether any restrictions should be placed on Spain's access to the Schengen area. Such a situation would be detrimental to Spain, especially amidst a peak tourist season. Prime Minister Sánchez has responded by accusing some European partners of lacking solidarity, further escalating tensions ahead of the crucial meeting.
This geopolitical tension threatens to sour trade relations between the EU and Morocco at a time when Moroccan exports to Spain are experiencing significant growth. Since the reopening of the border in 2022, Moroccan exports have doubled compared to Spanish exports: €985 million versus €467 million. In percentage terms, this disparity is even more pronounced, with 9.8% of Spanish exports compared to 25% of Moroccan exports. Historically, Spain has maintained a trade surplus with Morocco, primarily driven by energy, semi-manufactured products, and automobiles. However, the deficit that Morocco faces with Spain has narrowed to its lowest level since 2007, with the coverage ratio of Moroccan imports now at 92%, indicating that only 8% of imports are not offset by exports to Spain.
Given current trends, Morocco could achieve a trade surplus with Spain within the next two to three years, progress that is now suspended due to the ongoing migration crisis. The influx of migrants is so substantial—60 times more than the normal annual intake of African migrants in Ceuta—that some European capitals, led by Italy, have partially suspended the Schengen Agreement, which guarantees freedom of movement for people in participating countries.
Energy Vulnerabilities and Economic Interdependencies
Spain's most significant exports to Morocco are equipment and energy, which presents a vulnerability for the African nation. Morocco has quintupled the amount of gas it receives from Spain following its crisis with Algeria, rising from less than 1% of Spanish gas exports in 2021 to 24.8% in 2025, becoming the second-largest destination after France, according to data from the Strategic Petroleum Products Reserve Corporation (CORES). In terms of volume, this jump is even more dramatic; Morocco increased its gas imports from around 1,900 GWh in 2022 to over 10,300 GWh in 2025. In just three years, shipments through Spain have surged more than five-fold. Purchasing gas from Spain has been a critical solution for Morocco amid its strained relations with Algeria, yet this reliance also creates a significant weakness as Morocco cannot afford to forgo Spanish supplies, especially amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
Additionally, new electrical energy exchange connections between Spain and Morocco are being developed. Spain's growing generating capacity, bolstered by renewable energy, allows for increased exports to neighboring countries. In the case of Morocco, Spain has enjoyed a trade surplus for four consecutive years, reaching 3,743 GWh in 2025, a nearly 48% increase from the previous year and the highest figure since 2017. This energy dependency underscores Morocco's vulnerability, as both Madrid and Brussels have previously refrained from responding to border assaults, but the current situation is different due to the scale of the migratory onslaught and its consequences for the freedom of movement within the EU. There may also be calls for commercial repercussions against Morocco to prevent similar incidents in the future. All of these factors pose a genuine threat to the commercial relations between the two countries, coinciding with a period of unprecedented growth, particularly for Morocco.
As reported by elconfidencial.com.
