Impact of Low Fertility Rates in the Maghreb
The Maghreb region, comprising Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, is currently grappling with historically low fertility rates, resulting in significant demographic shifts. A recent demographic study highlights a troubling trend: the number of births in these countries has reached a critically low point, which appears to be a long-lasting phenomenon. This decline is not merely a statistical anomaly; it poses serious implications for the future of these nations as they confront an aging population and a slowdown in overall growth.
Historically, the fertility rate in the Maghreb was much higher, with women averaging between seven to eight children during the 1970s. However, by the early 1990s, this figure had dropped to roughly half, reflecting a rapid and simultaneous decline across the region. As of 2024, Morocco's fertility rate has plummeted to a record low of 1.97 children per woman, while Tunisia is projected to fall to 1.53 children per woman. Algeria's fertility rate stands at 2.61, having seen a slight rebound in the early 2000s but still below replacement levels.
Demographic Trends and Future Implications
These declining birth rates are indicative of broader societal changes, including delayed marriage and increased use of contraception. In Tunisia, the average age of marriage has risen to 28.9 years, reflecting a shift in priorities among young adults. In Morocco, a significant 71% of married women are reported to use contraception, compared to 50-55% in Algeria and Tunisia. This demographic evolution is tied to longer periods of education and late entry into the job market, particularly for women, which has further contributed to the decline in birth rates.
As a result, the demographic profile of the Maghreb is changing rapidly. In Tunisia, the proportion of individuals under 20 years of age is decreasing, while those aged 60 and above have risen from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024. Although the aging trend is less pronounced in Algeria and Morocco, it is expected to accelerate in the coming years. The ramifications of this demographic shift are profound; if the natural balance of births and deaths turns negative, as it is projected, the population growth will increasingly depend on uncertain and challenging migration patterns. Historically, the Maghreb has been characterized by a negative migration balance, in stark contrast to many European countries where migration has helped offset declining birth rates. Therefore, the future demographic trajectory of the Maghreb will inevitably hinge on unpredictable migratory trends, raising concerns about the region's sustainability and growth.
As reported by cnews.fr.
