Challenges Facing the Maghreb Region
The Maghreb region is currently grappling with a significant demographic decline that threatens the stability of its social fabric. A recent study conducted by a French institute specializing in demographics highlights that Algeria appears to be less affected by this trend compared to its neighbors, Tunisia and Morocco. The primary reason behind this demographic shift is the increasing reluctance of young people to marry until later in life, primarily due to challenging social circumstances. This trend poses serious implications for the population structure and, consequently, the economy that relies heavily on its human resources.
Fertility Rates and Population Dynamics
According to the study, Algeria stands out as the most favorable country in comparison to its regional neighbors and even in relation to several European nations. The average fertility rate in Algeria is recorded at 2.4 children per woman, which is above the replacement level; however, it has been on a decline since 2017. In stark contrast, Morocco's birth rate is projected to drop to below 1.97 children per woman by 2026, which corresponds to the generational replacement level, a significant decrease from the seven to eight children per woman observed in the 1970s. This disparity is expected to widen between Algeria and Morocco, considering Algeria's higher growth rate compared to Morocco's, which currently sees a population gap of approximately ten million people, as estimated by the United Nations. By 2026, Algeria's population is expected to reach about 48.03 million, while Morocco's will be around 38.7 million, exacerbating the demographic imbalance between the two neighboring countries.
The comparative analysis carried out by the French demographic institute indicates that the three Maghreb countries are heading towards “low” fertility levels in Algeria and “very low” levels in Morocco and Tunisia. Nonetheless, all three countries still surpass the European Union's average fertility rate of 1.34 children per woman. Malta records the lowest fertility rate at 1.01, followed by Spain at 1.1. France, on the other hand, boasts the highest birth rate in Europe at 1.62 children, largely due to a significant immigrant population, with Bulgaria following closely at 1.72 children. The European Union has been facing a fertility crisis for decades, prompting a reliance on immigration to compensate for labor shortages.
The decline in birth rates in Morocco, which has a population of 38.7 million, can be attributed partially to extended educational periods and delayed entry of youth, especially women, into the labor market. The widespread use of contraceptives also plays a crucial role, with 71% of Moroccan women utilizing these methods in 2018, the last year a survey was conducted on this issue. In contrast, the percentage of women in Algeria using contraceptives is significantly lower at only 53.6%.
Moreover, the study notes that Moroccan society is experiencing an increasing aging population compared to Algeria, with individuals over sixty years old making up 13.8% of the population—half the rate of Spain, which stands at 27%. The study anticipates that the pace of aging in Morocco will escalate in the coming years as fertility rates continue to decline. While the decreasing number of young people entering the labor market might result in a temporary reduction in youth unemployment, which currently stands at a high rate of 37.2% in Morocco, the overall unemployment rate is 13%. These rates are measured against less stringent criteria than those applied in the European Union, suggesting that if European standards were adopted, the unemployment figures would be even higher.
The study warns that the Maghreb countries are likely to age without achieving the levels of development and prosperity that could make them attractive destinations for migrants. In contrast, the more prosperous European countries are currently able to mitigate their chronic demographic shortages through immigration. However, this trend could lead to a projected population decline in Europe to just 400 million by the year 2100, while Africa's population is expected to reach 3.8 billion.
As reported by echoroukonline.com.
