Recent findings from the report titled 'Demography of the Canary Islands, Ceuta, and Melilla: The Porous Southern Border of Spain,' published by CEU Cefas and referenced by Libertad Digital, reveal a significant demographic transformation in the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla. The report indicates that Muslims now constitute the majority, particularly among the youth population, with over 80% of newborns bearing Muslim names. This demographic shift raises concerns about Morocco's "expansionist ambitions" regarding these Spanish territories.
In both coastal cities, the foreign-born population exhibits a markedly different profile compared to the rest of Spain. While Ceuta's percentage of residents born abroad stands at 14.1%, below the national average of 20.2%, Melilla has a higher figure of 24.4%. Notably, over 86% of these immigrants hail from Morocco, contrasting with the national average of 12.3%. The Moroccan-born individuals represent 11.8% of the population in Ceuta and 21.2% in Melilla, and these statistics do not account for their children and grandchildren born in Spain.
The study also highlights that both cities boast the youngest populations in the country. According to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the average age is 39.26 years in Ceuta and 37.66 years in Melilla, whereas the national average is 44.55 years. The authors attribute this age disparity largely to the historically higher fertility rates among the Moroccan-origin population, which has allowed these cities to maintain some of the highest birth rates in Spain for decades, although this trend is currently on the decline.
Reflecting this demographic change, the report notes that among male infants born between 2020 and 2024, 81.1% in Ceuta and 92.5% in Melilla were given one of the 20 most common Arabic names, a significant increase compared to the roughly 22% recorded in both cities during the 1970s. Furthermore, more than half of the population now carries Arabic-type surnames, with 53.5% in Ceuta and 56.4% in Melilla.
Based on these indicators, the report concludes that the Moroccan-Muslim population is already the majority or very close to it in both cities, with an even larger proportion among children and the youth demographic. Additionally, the study points out that Ceuta and Melilla experience the highest unemployment rates in the country and the lowest life expectancy in Spain.
Moreover, researchers caution that the borders of Ceuta and Melilla have been consistently and illegally crossed for decades by a considerable influx of immigrants from Morocco and other African nations, with Spanish authorities struggling to ensure effective border integrity. Territorial claims by Morocco loom over Ceuta and Melilla, where a significant portion of the population has Moroccan familial ties.
Due to these "expansionist claims from Rabat," the researchers note that Ceuta and Melilla receive media and sociodemographic attention that far exceeds their population weight in Spain, which is less than 0.4% of the total national population. They attribute this heightened focus to unique factors such as geographical location, territorial claims from Morocco associated with these enclaves, frequent border violations by individuals from Morocco, and the growing presence of the Moroccan-Muslim demographic, which is transforming public life in these cities.
As reported by libertaddigital.com.
