The New Demographic Era in North Africa
Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia have entered a significant demographic transition as birth rates continue to plummet to historically low levels. This shift is accelerating the aging of populations and slowing down population growth, leading to increased pressure on labor markets, pension systems, and healthcare services. A recent study by the French National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) highlighted that these three North African countries are experiencing one of the fastest global transformations in fertility rates, with a trend towards sustained declines in births expected to continue over the coming years.
Over the last five decades, the average number of children per woman has dramatically decreased from about seven to eight children in the 1970s to 1.97 children in Morocco and 2.61 children in Algeria by 2024. In Tunisia, the fertility rate reached an average of 1.58 children per woman in 2023, with projections estimating it to drop further to around 1.53 children in 2024. Despite the differing trajectories these countries have taken, they converge on a singular trend of declining fertility rates that are nearing their historical lows.
Factors Influencing Declining Birth Rates
In Morocco, the fertility rate has consistently declined since the 1990s and is projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in 2024. Algeria experienced a temporary increase in birth rates during the early 2000s, peaking at over three children per woman before returning to a downward trend since 2017. Tunisia, meanwhile, saw its fertility rate dip below the replacement level between 1999 and 2009, rise above 2.4 children in 2014, and then resume a rapid decline.
The study attributes this demographic shift to a variety of socio-economic factors, including changing marriage patterns, family planning initiatives, increased educational attainment, and delayed entry into the workforce, particularly among young women. In Tunisia, for instance, the average age of first marriage for women has risen to 28.9 years in 2024, coinciding with an increase in the number of unmarried individuals under 40, which has contributed to the postponement of family formation and childbirth.
In Morocco, the average age of first marriage for women decreased from 26.3 years in 2004 to 24.6 years in 2024, yet fertility continues to decline, indicating the influence of additional factors such as the prevalence of contraceptive methods. Approximately 71% of married Moroccan women use contraception, compared to 50-55% in Algeria and Tunisia. The decline in birth rates is not solely tied to marriage and family planning; it also encompasses the rising costs of housing, education, and healthcare, precarious job opportunities, and evolving aspirations among women and families regarding childbirth timing and the number of children.
This demographic transition is becoming increasingly evident in the age structure of the populations, as North African countries progress toward an aging demographic. Tunisia leads in this regard, with the proportion of individuals aged 60 and over rising from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024. Morocco's share of this age group reached 13.8% in 2024, while Algeria recorded 10.5% in 2023, with expectations of a rapid aging process in both countries in the coming decades.
The continuous decline in birth rates signifies a decrease in the number of individuals entering the labor market in the future, coinciding with an increase in the elderly population benefiting from pension systems and healthcare services. This situation imposes mounting financial and social pressures on governments and families. However, the decline in fertility does not imply an immediate reduction in the populations of these countries, as the larger generations born in past decades continue to support population growth through what is known as "demographic momentum." Nevertheless, the ongoing decrease in birth rates, alongside the fact that these countries are more often sources than destinations for migrants, may gradually slow population growth and reduce the size of the workforce.
As the gap between the number of individuals entering the labor market and the number of retirees widens in the future, North African countries may find themselves increasingly needing to reassess immigration policies and labor recruitment strategies. This presents a striking demographic paradox; countries that have historically been sources of migration and have faced challenges related to incoming migration may soon find themselves in need of foreign labor to sustain their economies and finance social protection systems.
The decline in fertility rates in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia reflects a broad social transformation linked to changes in marriage patterns, education, employment, family planning, and rising costs of establishing families and raising children. As fertility rates fall below the replacement level, the implications of this transition become increasingly evident on the age structure of the populations, the size of the workforce, and the capacity of pension and healthcare systems to accommodate the rising numbers of elderly individuals.
As reported by eanlibya.com.
