Morocco's Economic Outlook: Positive Growth Projections
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its economic growth expectations for Morocco, announcing an upward adjustment in its regional report published on September 24, 2026. The financial institution now forecasts that Morocco's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 4.8% in 2026, marking an increase of 0.4 percentage points from its June estimate. However, for 2027, the EBRD anticipates a slowdown in growth to 3.9%.
The primary driver behind this adjustment is the recovery of agricultural production, which surged by 18.4% in the first half of 2026 after several years of drought. This substantial growth in agriculture has offset weaker developments in the construction sector and certain industrial segments. In the first quarter, the GDP increased by 4.6% year-on-year, although investments showed signs of slowing down compared to the elevated levels of the previous year.
Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Challenges
The macroeconomic environment in Morocco remains stable, with an average inflation rate of just 0.5% recorded in the first half of the year. In this context, the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, has decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. Despite a widening trade deficit, the current account deficit was contained to 1.2% of GDP in the first quarter. Key supports for the external trade balance continue to be tourism revenues and remittances from Moroccans living abroad. By August 2026, foreign exchange reserves had reached $54.3 billion, sufficient to cover more than five months' worth of imports. The government is still targeting a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP for the current year, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to decrease from 66.6% in 2025 to 65.8%.
With the projected growth rate of 4.8%, Morocco is set to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region in 2026. Conversely, the EBRD forecasts a decline in economic performance for the overall SEMED region by 0.7%, mainly due to a significant contraction in Iraq (-12.0%) caused by disrupted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a recession in Lebanon (-5.0%). Excluding Iraq, the bank predicts a growth rate of 3.9% for the region.
Geopolitical tensions, high energy costs, and disrupted trade routes continue to weigh heavily on the economic outlook for the Southern Mediterranean. The future trajectory of Morocco’s economy will largely depend on how global commodity prices and export routes evolve in the coming months.
As reported by maghreb-post.de.
