High Risk of Water Scarcity: 85% of Moroccan Mining Sites Under Threat

The International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) has conducted a significant study that juxtaposes the locations of 12,000 mining and metallurgical facilities against key global water risk indicators. The findings reveal that an alarming 85% of the studied Moroccan sites are situated in areas exposed to high or extremely high drought risk, amounting to 22 installations, starkly contrasting with the global average of 27%. This data, extracted from the ICMM's global report on water in the mining and metallurgy industries, places Morocco among the countries most susceptible to water scarcity, sharing the top position with Burkina Faso. Only countries like Ukraine and Zimbabwe (86%), Peru and Bolivia (87%), and Saudi Arabia (95%) rank higher, followed closely by South Africa (96%) and others like Ghana, Zambia, and Uzbekistan, which face a staggering 100% exposure.

The ICMM identifies drought as the "second most prevalent indicator of physical water risk" within the global mining and metallurgy sector, emphasizing that this risk is geographically concentrated, with Africa and the Middle East accounting for 81% of installations in high or very high-risk zones as compared to the global figure of 27%. However, caution is advised when interpreting the Moroccan statistics; the ICMM annotates the 85% figure with an asterisk, indicating that the national sample comprises fewer than 50 installations, rendering this proportion "less robust." Notably, the study does not assess the actual quantity of water extracted or consumed by the facilities in question, instead illustrating their geographical overlap with basins at risk and highlighting the "exposure of installations to watershed-level conditions" rather than the actual degree of risk experienced or managed at each site.

With 22 installations deemed exposed, Morocco's situation surpasses the global average by more than threefold. The analysis is grounded on data from 12,000 mines, foundries, refineries, factories, and steel mills distributed across 148 countries or territories. Five physical indicators structure this analysis, including two acute hazards—drought and flooding—and three chronic pressures: baseline water stress, resource depletion, and inter-annual variability. The report defines water stress as the ratio between "total water demand" and "available resources," essentially reflecting competition among various users. It distinguishes resource depletion as measuring the portion of water that is "permanently consumed" and "not returned to the basin." Inter-annual variability, in turn, illustrates the "year-to-year fluctuations in water supply" and its degree of unpredictability.

Globally, baseline water stress emerges as the most widespread pressure, with approximately 30% of installations located in areas where it reaches high or extremely high levels, complemented by an additional 8% situated in arid regions where water is "functionally unavailable." Among these 38% of installations, over 70% are also found in basins experiencing high or extremely high resource depletion, encompassing 3,289 facilities and representing 27% of the global sample. These installations are thus situated in basins characterized by "competition for available water resources," where the study notes that "current water reserves are being used faster than they can be replenished."

This pressure is particularly pronounced in several major mining countries. Saudi Arabia exhibits a 100% exposure rate for resource depletion across its installations, followed closely by Chile at 96%, Iran and Mexico at 81%. China, holding the largest absolute number of mining or metallurgical sites within basins under water stress, accounts for 1,836 installations, which is 59% of its documented facilities. Among the Chinese sites studied, 45% are located in areas of extremely high stress, 10% in high-stress regions, and 4% in arid zones or areas characterized by low water usage, affecting sectors such as coal, nickel, aluminum, iron ore, gold, and copper.

Drought impacts certain sectors more acutely than others. Globally, 74% of installations linked to platinum group metals are located in high-risk areas, followed by those dedicated to chromite at 60% and diamonds at 57%. The ICMM attributes these proportions to the concentration of such productions in regions facing "endemic" drought risk, particularly in Southern Africa. Across the entire sector, more than one in four installations, or 27%, are exposed to a high risk of drought.

Notably, two-thirds of global installations confront at least one high water risk, and the ICMM describes water as a "structural constraint" for mines. Flooding presents a different risk geography, with around 14% of installations exposed to a high or extremely high level, a figure that the ICMM presents as "the lowest average rate of high exposure among physical indicators." However, this rate escalates to 27% for alumina refineries and steel mills, 25% for molybdenum facilities, and 24% for aluminum foundries. The report notes that for aluminum, refining and smelting individually exhibit increased exposure, a phenomenon that "does not stem from the clustering of facilities in a single flood-prone location" but is observed across various regions and watersheds.

In Asia, 21% of installations face a significant flood risk, compared to 14% globally. China has 629 affected sites, Indonesia has 163, and India has 131, with Indonesia's 32% exposure rate being the highest among the major mining regions studied. This distribution confirms that water-related risks remain "highly variable according to mining and metallurgical installations" and are closely tied to the specific characteristics of each basin.

Inter-annual variability in water supply reaches high or extremely high levels for 16% of global installations, equivalent to 1,945 sites. The exposure rate rises to 74% in Oceania and 79% in Australia. The ICMM defines this indicator as a measure of "the reliability of water supply," where high values indicate broader annual variations and less predictable resources. Diamond-related installations report a 46% exposure rate, those linked to barium and heavy mineral sands at 37%, and manganese facilities at 31%.

By consolidating the various indicators, the study finds that 66% of global mining and metallurgical installations are exposed to a high level of at least one physical water risk. Approximately 5% simultaneously confront three or more independent risks, a scenario where "multiple independent physical pressures related to water converge on the same installations." The ICMM posits that when multiple constraints overlap, "the overall vulnerability of an installation may be greater than that of any individual indicator taken in isolation," indicating that each site must contend with several distinct challenges whose solutions do not necessarily intersect.

These multiple exposures are concentrated in the western United States, Chile, Peru, Southern Africa, Northern China, Central India, and Western Australia. They involve 31% of diamond-related installations, 21% of manganese facilities, 19% of barium sites, and 9% of copper locations. In Chile, the world's leading copper producer and holder of a significant share of the global lithium reserves, 86% of installations face high exposure to both baseline water stress and inter-annual variability.

For the ICMM, these findings underscore that physical water risks "are not peripheral" and constitute "a structural constraint on the expansion of the mining and metallurgical sector." Water can serve both as "a facilitating factor and a constraint" for the production of minerals and metals essential for the energy transition, and its availability will be a determining factor in many regions regarding "whether new mining capacities can be created and at what speed." Without coordination between industries and public authorities, the report warns, water risk could become "a bottleneck for supply."

The organization also asserts that "fragmented or reactive approaches will be insufficient" in the face of increasing trade-offs between industrial uses, agriculture, water security for populations, and ecosystem preservation. Regional land and water planning must facilitate the equitable distribution of resources among competing users, prevent excessive withdrawals, and mitigate delays, conflicts, and immobilized investments. Climate variations are expected to exacerbate extremes, while data already indicate that water risk is "geographically concentrated and linked across supply chains."

The ICMM summarizes its findings by presenting water as "a determining factor in the geography, cost structure, and resilience of the mining and metallurgical sector." The results "do not quantify the pressure exerted by mining activity on water resources or ecosystems" and do not allow for individual assessment of a site or business, as withdrawals, consumption, discharges, and locally adopted measures are not integrated, as clarified.

As reported by barlamane.com.