A recent study from the French National Institute of Demographic Studies has confirmed that Morocco recorded its lowest fertility rate in history in 2024. The findings indicate a continuous decline in fertility rates over recent decades, with the figures now falling below the demographic replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman for the first time, marking a significant historical milestone for the country.
The study highlights that despite the ongoing decrease in fertility, there has not been a notable change in the timing of births. The peak fertility age remains concentrated among women aged 25 to 29 over the three-year period studied. However, this reduction manifests through a decreased birth density, first among mothers aged 30 to 34, followed by those aged 25 to 29, leading to declines across all age groups over 20 years. The average age at childbirth has remained stable, ranging between 30.3 and 30.6 years.
Remarkably, fertility rates in Morocco are declining even as women are marrying at relatively younger ages. Data from the census shows a drop in the average age of women at first marriage, from 26.3 years in 2004 to 24.6 years in 2024, while the average age for men has continued to rise, from 31.2 to 32.4 years over the same period. This decrease in the age of marriage for women has not halted the decline in fertility rates, underscoring the pivotal role of other factors, primarily the use of contraception.
The study attributes the declining fertility rates largely to the increased use of contraceptives, with the percentage of married women utilizing them rising from 40% to 70% between the 1990s and 2020. The adoption of modern contraceptive methods—such as birth control pills, IUDs, injections, implants, and sterilization—has seen a significant increase compared to traditional methods like periodic abstinence.
These demographic changes are occurring within a socio-economic context characterized by extended years of education and delayed entry of youth, particularly women, into the labor market. In the three countries included in the study (Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria), there has been a notable increase in the proportion of female students in education, especially higher education. For instance, in Tunisia, women aged 25 to 34 years make up nearly 60% of students (National Institute of Statistics, 2025). However, this rise has not translated into better integration into the job market, as the unemployment rate among young graduates remains high, and women’s career paths are fraught with challenges.
The study also highlights that alongside these economic and institutional constraints, recent changes in fertility rates reflect a shift in family norms. In North African societies, as in many others, parenthood is becoming increasingly demanding, with parents today placing greater emphasis on their children’s academic success, well-being, and living conditions. This shift leads to a growing emotional and economic investment in fewer children.
These new family norms are disseminated through various channels—including schools, media, and social networks—and align reproductive behaviors observed in other parts of the world, while remaining rooted in specific social and cultural contexts.
The study concludes that the recent decline in fertility rates across the Maghreb countries is evident and at times rapid, reflecting ongoing behavioral changes characterized by delayed births, increased intervals between them, and a reduction in their numbers. While the paths of these changes may vary from one country to another, they generally trend toward a potential stabilization of fertility rates at persistently low levels, without any significant resurgence comparable to historical figures.
As reported by lakome2.com.
