Significant Decrease in Birth Rates in the Maghreb Region
A recent demographic study conducted by a French research institute has revealed a significant and stable decline in birth rates across the Maghreb countries, which include Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. This decline is contributing to a slowdown in demographic growth and a rapid increase in the aging population throughout the region. The National Institute of Demographic Studies in France has documented a simultaneous and swift drop in fertility rates in these countries, noting that the average number of children born to a woman plummeted from 7 to 8 during the 1970s to approximately half that figure by the early 1990s.
According to the study, Morocco has hit a historic low in its fertility rate, averaging 1.97 births per woman in 2024. Tunisia follows closely with a rate of 1.58 in 2023, which is expected to decrease further to 1.53 in 2024. Algeria's fertility rate stands at 2.61 births per woman for the same year. The analysis indicates that Algeria experienced a demographic resurgence between 2000 and 2017, where the fertility rate exceeded three children per woman. Tunisia also saw a similar but less pronounced increase, with rates peaking at 2.4 children in 2014 before resuming a downward trend.
Factors Influencing Fertility Decline and Population Aging
The study attributes the recent wave of fertility decline to a variety of social and economic factors. In Tunisia, one major factor is the rise in the average age of marriage, which reached 28.9 years for women in 2024. Meanwhile, in Morocco, the decline is significantly linked to the increased use of contraception, with 71% of married women employing family planning methods, compared to 50-55% in Algeria and Tunisia, which saw a rise from 60-65% at the beginning of the millennium.
Additionally, the research connects these demographic shifts to longer education periods and the delayed entry of youth—particularly women—into the labor market. In terms of age structure, the study confirms a growing trend toward an aging population in the Maghreb. For instance, Tunisia has witnessed a notable decrease in the population under the age of 20, while the percentage of individuals aged 60 and above has risen from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024. Although the pace of aging is less severe in Algeria, where the over-60 demographic accounted for about 10.5% in 2023, and in Morocco, at 13.8% in 2024, projections indicate that this trend will accelerate in the coming years.
As reported by m.jawharafm.net.
