Morocco has emerged as a pivotal player in the global energy landscape through its ambitious African Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) project, previously known as the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline. This extensive initiative aims to transport natural gas from Nigeria to Europe, traversing a multitude of West African and Sahelian nations. What makes this endeavor particularly striking is that Morocco possesses virtually no gas reserves and lacks a history of hydrocarbon exploitation or trade, yet it has successfully positioned this project as a multi-billion-dollar venture with far-reaching geopolitical implications.
The backdrop of this development includes the significant geopolitical shifts following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which left Europe in urgent need of alternative energy supplies. Historically, Russia accounted for approximately 40% of the European Union's pipeline gas, but as the EU escalated its efforts to phase out Russian imports, the demand for alternative routes surged. Algeria, already a key supplier to the EU, was positioned to fill much of this gap by providing nearly 20% of the bloc's pipeline gas, second only to Norway. While Morocco lacks its own gas resources, it has leveraged its geographical location to advocate for the AAGP, branding it as a vital corridor connecting Europe, Africa, and the Atlantic basin.
Moroccan authorities have made substantial investments in promoting the AAGP, dubbing it 'the new energy backbone of the continent.' Over the years, the Moroccan government engaged in both formal and informal diplomacy, mobilizing business leaders and lobbyists to attract potential investors and stakeholders. In July 2025, Morocco announced the finalization of the gas pipeline route, with a flurry of contracts and agreements purportedly in place. Local media celebrated this milestone, triumphantly declaring that the project was on the verge of taking off.
However, despite the jubilance surrounding the AAGP, experts have raised concerns regarding its feasibility in light of economic, technical, and geopolitical realities. Ali Aissaoui, a noted researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, suggests that the successful realization of a pipeline of this scale hinges on several critical factors. These include the availability of resources, market dynamics, economic viability, and, perhaps most crucially, a stable and cooperative political environment among the participating nations. A mere signed agreement does not guarantee the completion of a pipeline, and many of the underlying challenges facing the AAGP persist.
As the competition heats up, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune recently announced the commencement of work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), which connects Nigeria to Algeria via Niger. This project, which is set to begin construction soon, effectively places the AAGP at a disadvantage. The TSGP is anticipated to be shorter and less expensive, with costs estimated between $10 billion and $13 billion, leveraging existing gas infrastructure. In contrast, the AAGP's projected costs soar to approximately $25 billion, alongside a timeline that extends well into the next decade, with operational status not expected before 2040.
Morocco has attempted to bolster the AAGP's appeal by highlighting its potential to provide gas to several nations before reaching Moroccan borders, thereby demonstrating a commitment to alleviating poverty in West Africa and the Sahel. Yet, questions arise regarding the sustainability of gas supplies if each beneficiary nation draws from the pipeline before the gas reaches Morocco. Ultimately, the decision regarding the volume of gas transported will rest heavily on Nigeria's national interests, particularly as Europe seeks to secure its energy future in the face of dwindling Russian supplies.
As reported by middleeasteye.net.
