A recent study released by France's Institut national d’études démographiques (INED) highlights a significant demographic transformation currently occurring in Morocco, framed within broader trends across the Maghreb region. This comprehensive report, authored by Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi, Ibtihel Bouchoucha, and Soumaya Abdellatif, meticulously analyzes the fertility patterns in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, revealing a shift from historically high fertility rates to a concerning decline that appears to have settled into a new norm.
In the decades following the 1970s, fertility rates in these countries plummeted from a staggering average of seven to eight children per woman, down to around half of that by the early 1990s. However, the expected uniform path of fertility decline has diverged significantly across the region. Notably, while Algeria experienced a rebound in fertility rates to over three children per woman in the mid-2010s and Tunisia also saw a slight increase, Morocco has entered a phase of continuous decline, reaching an unprecedented low of 1.97 children per woman in 2024—well below the replacement threshold of 2.1.
This decline in fertility has not been accompanied by a significant shift in the timing of childbirth. The peak fertility age remains consistent, particularly among women aged 25 to 29, while the overall birth rates have decreased at all ages over the past two decades. Interestingly, despite a trend of earlier marriages for women in Morocco, with the average age at first marriage dropping from 26.3 years in 2004 to 24.6 years in 2024, this has not curbed the decline in fertility rates. The study attributes this phenomenon to the increasing influence of contraception, which has become a pivotal factor in shaping reproductive choices.
Morocco's contraceptive use has significantly evolved, with the percentage of married women utilizing some form of contraception rising from 40% in the 1990s to 70% in 2020. This shift has been marked by a transition towards modern contraceptive methods, which now account for 58% of usage, moving away from traditional practices. This pattern parallels the experiences seen in countries like Iran and Egypt, where widespread adoption of contraception has dramatically influenced birth rates.
However, the declining fertility rates cannot solely be explained by reproductive health choices; they are also reflective of broader socioeconomic challenges faced by women in Morocco. The report indicates that, despite an increase in educational attainment among women, there remains a significant gap in employment opportunities. The female labor participation rate rises sharply in the late twenties but declines thereafter, particularly as women approach the age where parental responsibilities intensify. This dual pressure of balancing family and work commitments may lead to postponed marriages and delayed childbirth.
Furthermore, evolving family norms are contributing to the complexity of parenthood, as it is increasingly viewed as a demanding endeavor that requires greater emotional and financial investment for fewer children. The demographic implications of these trends are evident in Morocco’s population structure. The country has witnessed an aging population, with 13.8% of individuals being 60 years or older in 2024, a figure projected to increase as fertility continues to decline. This demographic shift raises concerns about the future, as smaller generations approach reproductive age, leading to a decrease in annual births and potentially negative population growth if migration patterns do not offset this decline.
The report ultimately underscores the clear and rapid nature of this fertility decline in Morocco, indicating that without significant changes, a rebound in fertility rates appears unlikely.
As reported by moroccoworldnews.com.
