Morocco Faces Demographic Decline as Fertility Rates Fall
As of August 2026, Morocco has officially entered a period of demographic decline, with the fertility rate dropping to below the necessary level for generational renewal. According to the latest statistics from the High Commission for Planning, the fertility rate in Morocco reached an alarming low of 1.97 children per woman in 2024. This stark decrease is notable when compared to 2.22 children in 2014 and 2.5 in 2004, highlighting a significant trend in declining birth rates over the past decades.
The data reveals striking regional disparities within Morocco, with the gap between the highest and lowest fertility rates reaching 0.62 points. The region of Drâa-Tafilalet leads the national rankings with a fertility rate of 2.35 children per woman, followed closely by Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (2.25), Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra (2.17), and Marrakech-Safi (2.13). These four regions are the only ones exceeding the crucial threshold of 2.1 children per woman, a figure necessary to maintain demographic balance and generational renewal.
Conversely, other regions report fertility rates below this threshold, with Fès-Meknès and Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima nearing the mark at 2.02 and 2.01, respectively. In stark contrast, regions such as Béni Mellal-Khénifra, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Casablanca-Settat, Guelmim-Oued Noun, and Souss-Massa show even lower rates, culminating in the Eastern region with a disheartening rate of just 1.73 children per woman.
Additionally, the urban-rural divide is pronounced, with rural areas generally exhibiting higher fertility rates in ten out of twelve regions. For instance, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra reports a significant disparity, with a fertility rate of 2.49 children per woman in rural areas compared to 1.70 in urban settings. This trend continues in Marrakech-Safi and Fès-Meknès. However, certain southern regions present an opposite scenario, where urban fertility rates surpass those in rural areas, particularly in Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, which has recorded a rate of 2.26 children in urban areas against 1.90 in rural settings.
The overall national average for the final fertility rate among women who have completed their childbearing years stands at 2.8 children per woman, with urban averages at 2.5 and rural averages at 3.4, further emphasizing the regional differences. Drâa-Tafilalet again leads with an average of 3.5 children, followed by Marrakech-Safi and Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab, while Casablanca-Settat records the lowest at the national level.
Over the past three decades, Morocco has experienced a consistent decline in fertility rates, dropping from 3.3 children per woman in 1994 to below two in 2024. This decline is evident across various age groups, particularly among women aged 30 to 34, who represent the most fertile demographic. Furthermore, early pregnancy rates have also seen a significant reduction, with the fertility rate among girls aged 15 to 19 plummeting from 28.6 per thousand in 1994 to just 11.29 per thousand in 2024. Concurrently, the average age of first childbirth has increased from 21.8 years in 1988 to 24.9 years in 2010.
On a positive note, the use of contraceptive methods has become more widespread within Moroccan society, with the adoption rate rising to 72.8% in 2025, a dramatic increase from 19.4% in 1979. Notably, rural areas have begun to report higher usage rates of modern contraceptive methods compared to urban areas, indicating a significant shift in reproductive health practices across the country.
As reported by kech24.com.
