Morocco has once again reignited its historical claims over the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, particularly following the massive influx of approximately 80,000 migrants into Ceuta at the end of July. However, experts consulted by Europa Press believe that while Rabat is seizing the current context to emphasize its claims, it is unlikely to take concrete measures that would alter the existing status quo. This perspective is echoed by Riccardo Fabiani, the North Africa director at the think tank Crisis Group, and Irene Fernández Molina, a lecturer in International Relations at the University of Exeter in the UK.
Fabiani highlights that Morocco's stance is nothing new; the country has consistently maintained that Ceuta and Melilla are occupied territories, advocating for their status to be resolved through negotiations. This assertion gains traction as Morocco finds itself in a more favorable environment to revisit this issue, partly due to encouragement from the US administration and a growing confidence regarding the future of Western Sahara, which saw recognition from Donald Trump during his presidency in December 2020.
The recent surge of migrants into Ceuta has underscored Morocco's vulnerability and its reliance on cooperation for its own security, a situation Fabiani believes Rabat is leveraging to reaffirm a claim that is part of the Moroccan political consensus. According to him, there is a unified agreement among major Moroccan political parties that Western Sahara, Ceuta, and Melilla belong to Morocco. In this context, the remarks made by Moroccan Justice Minister Abdellatif Ouahbi, who called for a dialogue with Spain regarding Ceuta and Melilla, could be interpreted as an attempt to initiate discussions on a particularly sensitive topic.
Fernández Molina, on the other hand, suggests that certain actors may be opportunistically exploiting the situation in Ceuta for their own gain, with Ouahbi possibly seeking increased visibility ahead of Morocco's legislative elections scheduled for September 23.
Experts Dismiss Premeditated Plans
Despite the recent accusations and assertions surrounding the migrant influx, both experts agree that the events of late July were not intended to reopen territorial debates with Spain. Fernández Molina asserts that without a thorough investigation, it cannot be concluded that there was any deliberate organization or machination by Moroccan authorities. However, she does emphasize the undeniable responsibility of Moroccan security forces for failing to prevent the surge of entries. There is also speculation that some factions within the security services may have played a role in the situation, although she doubts that the operation was directly ordered by King Mohammed VI.
Fabiani concurs, suggesting that the events may have been spontaneous and fueled by social media. He theorizes that Moroccan security forces might have underestimated or initially facilitated the flow of migrants, believing it would be easier to manage than it ultimately proved to be. By the time authorities recognized the scale of the situation, it was too late for effective containment measures.
Morocco's Focus: Western Sahara and the 2030 World Cup
In light of the renewed discourse surrounding Ceuta and Melilla, experts find it improbable that Morocco will take actions beyond mere statements. Fernández Molina remarks that this issue has always been present and will continue to be, asserting that Rabat is unlikely to pursue active measures to alter the status quo. Similarly, Fabiani believes Morocco is not in a hurry to resolve the status of these two autonomous cities, viewing it as part of a long-term strategy, especially given other pressing priorities at hand.
Among these priorities is Western Sahara, which Fernández Molina identifies as the true focal point of Moroccan foreign policy. Moreover, maintaining a good relationship with Spain is seen as advantageous for Morocco. Additionally, the anticipation of the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which Morocco will co-host with Spain and Portugal, has emerged as a strategic political opportunity for the kingdom, prompting significant investments in infrastructure and a desire to project a favorable international image. Fabiani agrees that the World Cup represents a compelling reason for Morocco to refrain from escalating its claims over Ceuta and Melilla.
Ultimately, experts conclude that while Rabat aims to keep the issue of the two autonomous cities alive, it is adopting a patient and long-term strategy. As Fabiani succinctly summarizes, Ceuta and Melilla will continue to be part of Morocco's claims, though the kingdom is prepared to wait for an extended period to see them resolved.
As reported by elfarodeceuta.es.
