Recent data has revealed that Morocco's trade deficit in the pharmaceutical sector is projected to expand significantly over the coming years, potentially reaching approximately 13.4 billion dirhams by 2030. This alarming trend is largely driven by the continuous growth of imports outpacing exports, despite legislative and customs reforms aimed at improving access to medicines and enhancing the competitiveness of the local pharmaceutical industry.
A recent memo from BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions specializing in country risks and industrial research, highlighted that updated foreign trade statistics prompted a reassessment of the Moroccan pharmaceutical market. The memo pointed out that imports experienced stronger-than-expected growth last year, exacerbating the sector's trade deficit.
According to this memo, Moroccan pharmaceutical exports remained relatively stable last year at around 1.6 billion dirhams, reflecting an annual increase of just 1.2% in local currency. In stark contrast, imports surged by 17.4%, reaching 11.9 billion dirhams, surpassing the institution's previous forecast of 10.8 billion dirhams. This evident disparity between the growth rates of exports and imports has resulted in an increase in the pharmaceutical trade deficit from 9.2 billion dirhams to 10.3 billion dirhams, with expectations that imports will continue to outstrip exports in the coming years, potentially widening the gap to 13.4 billion dirhams by 2030.
The BMI memo attributes this trajectory primarily to sustained demand for imported medicines, which is bolstered by rising healthcare spending and new customs measures aimed at reducing prices for essential products and alleviating shortages in the market.
In this context, the institution anticipates a rise in pharmaceutical sales in Morocco, projecting an increase from 35.8 billion dirhams in 2025 to 38.6 billion dirhams in 2026, marking a growth rate of 7.8%. By 2030, sales are expected to reach approximately 46.3 billion dirhams, driven by rising individual spending and an expanding presence of pharmaceutical products in the market.
Conversely, ongoing reforms are focused on bolstering the local industry and generic drugs to gradually reduce dependence on foreign imports. The memo noted that the Moroccan House of Councillors approved Bill No. 27.26 in June, which revises the code governing medicines and pharmacy, thereby expanding the competencies of the Moroccan Agency for Medicines and Health Products in licensing, monitoring, inspection, and pharmacovigilance.
Generic Medicines to Curb Imports
The BMI memo suggests that shortening the approval timelines for marketing medicines could accelerate the entry of generic drugs into the market, improving the competitive standing of Moroccan manufacturers, especially against international competitors who have managed to penetrate African markets more swiftly.
The international institution projects that the market for generic medicines in Morocco could reach around 20.7 billion dirhams by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 6.3% in local currency. While this growth may contribute to curbing the pace of import growth in the long term, it is unlikely to reverse the trade deficit trend during the projected period.
Moreover, the reduction of customs duties has exerted short-term pressure on the pharmaceutical trade balance. The memo indicates that the 2026 finance law has lowered duties on 112 essential medicines from 30% to 2.5%, along with partial reductions for ten other products, following reports of shortages affecting over 600 medicines in 2025.
This coincided with a 30% increase in the health sector budget for 2026, reaching a record 42.3 billion dirhams. The institution expects this boost to support public procurement and demand for pharmaceutical products, while simultaneously continuing to fuel imports.
In conclusion, the qualitative memo suggests that Morocco's robust economic growth will sustain high levels of healthcare spending and pharmaceutical imports. The institution forecasts real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, indicating that efforts to reduce the pharmaceutical trade deficit will remain contingent on accelerating local manufacturing, enhancing the presence of generic drugs, and decreasing reliance on imported products.
As reported by hespress.com.
