Strategic Electric Interconnection Between Portugal and Morocco
Portugal is actively seeking to transform Morocco into a vital gateway for electricity as it faces an escalating risk that the development of new energy generation may not suffice to meet the anticipated surge in demand over the next decade. The electrical interconnection project between these two nations, which was revitalized this past summer, has taken on a new significance following the Portuguese government's acknowledgment, alongside REN (the Portuguese transmission system operator), of potential sufficiency issues within the energy system starting in 2028. The national adequacy assessment in Portugal has identified coverage risks for the years 2028, 2030, and 2035, with expected load loss indicators, known as LOLE, exceeding the Portuguese reliability benchmark of 1.46 hours annually. In 2028, it is projected to reach 1.71 hours, escalating to 8.29 hours by 2030, and a staggering 68.3 hours by 2035. Conversely, the European assessment by ERAA 2025 has nearly dismissed these concerns.
The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) within the European Union posits that some of Portugal's assumptions may be overstating the deficit; however, it acknowledges the existence of factors that warrant concern. Notably, a lower-than-expected deployment of wind and solar energy, coupled with the significant rise in electricity demand associated with new data centers and industrial consumers, has intensified these worries. In light of this scenario, the agreement between Portugal and Morocco to revive a long-proposed electrical interconnection project has become particularly relevant, especially given the ongoing diplomatic crisis over Ceuta. Lisbon and Rabat have agreed to seek support from the European Commission and explore private financing avenues to construct this link, with initial studies dating back to 2018. Portugal aims to have this recognized as a strategic European project to gain access to community funding.
The Urgent Need for Energy Flexibility
The urgency for new flexibility sources is underscored by the magnitude of connection requests that Portugal has received. By February 2026, approximately 41 GW of large consumers had requested access to the grid, with 9.2 GW securing connection permissions and an additional 4.6 GW in advanced bidding procedures. Altogether, around 13.8 GW were either secured or at an advanced stage. Data centers are particularly significant in these forecasts, with ACER acknowledging that the high demand estimates from Portuguese authorities are supported by formal connection requests and investment plans, though it cautions that not all projects are guaranteed to materialize.
This new demand emerges at a time when renewable generation deployment is lagging behind official targets. Portugal's assessment predicts that by 2030, the combined capacity of wind and solar energy could be approximately half of what is outlined in the European scenario, a more conservative forecast that ACER deems justified, reflecting the observed pace of construction and project processing. Recently, Portugal has bolstered its main security valve by inaugurating a new 400 kV interconnection between Galicia and northern Portugal, which added around 1,000 MW of exchange capacity. Following its commissioning, the capacity has reached around 4,200 MW from Spain to Portugal and 3,500 MW in the opposite direction, as reported by the European Commission.
However, ACER warns that relying solely on Spain introduces another variable: the sufficiency of the Spanish electrical system itself. The agency points out that the evolution of the capacity market being prepared by the Spanish government could impact Portugal, as it will determine the amount of generation available in Spain during scarcity situations, thereby affecting the potential for export to the neighboring country. ACER even suggests that the extension of the Almaraz plant until mid-2030 could influence that export capacity.
Thus, the future connection with Morocco can be viewed as more than just a bilateral project. Portugal aims to diversify its supply options within a system located at the far western edge of Europe, which is constrained by limited interconnections with the rest of the continent. The Iberian blackout in April 2025 further fueled this discussion, prompting Portugal and Morocco to revive the project as it highlighted the relative isolation of the Iberian Peninsula from the continental electrical system. Lisbon now seeks to present the infrastructure as a strategic link between Europe and Africa.
Nevertheless, the interconnection with Morocco does not inherently resolve the sufficiency issues identified by Portugal. Its contribution will depend on the actual capacity built, the availability of Moroccan generation during periods of Portuguese scarcity, and whether tension episodes coincide on both sides of the link. ACER also calls for Portugal to develop battery storage solutions and demand response mechanisms and to accurately account for backup resources such as the 990 MW from the Tapada do Outeiro gas plant before determining the real extent of the deficit. However, the assessment published by ACER now provides a much stronger justification for the security of supply associated with the project with Morocco: Portugal could transition in a few years from a system with frequent renewable surpluses to one that requires new sources of firm capacity and flexibility to accommodate the growth in demand. In this context, the Moroccan connection would not merely serve as a conduit for renewable trade between Africa and Europe but could become a critical piece of Portugal's electrical security.
As reported by eleconomista.es.
