For nearly five years, Spain has been engaged in a delicate diplomatic balancing act, striving to stabilize its relationships with two neighboring countries to the south, Morocco and Algeria, which have a long-standing rivalry. The crisis with Morocco, which erupted in 2021 due to Spain's decision to grant humanitarian entry to Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario Front, prompted the Spanish government led by Pedro Sánchez to align itself with Moroccan claims regarding Western Sahara. This move, while aimed at resolving the tension with Morocco, incited a strong backlash from Algeria, leading to a diplomatic and economic rift with Spain a year later.
Recently, however, Spain appears to have successfully revitalized its bilateral relations with both countries. The question arises: how did it manage to achieve this diplomatic feat?
One significant factor is Algeria's increasing regional isolation, compelling it to seek closure on multiple fronts. With heightened tensions with Morocco, a deteriorating relationship with France, instability in the Sahel, concerns over the rising influence of the Benghazi faction in Libya, and distrust towards the growing power of the United Arab Emirates in Tunisia, Libya, and the Sahel, Algeria finds itself in a precarious position. According to Eduard Soler, a professor of International Relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and the Barcelona Institute of International Studies, it is crucial for Algeria to normalize relations with Spain as a means to mitigate its isolation without making explicit concessions regarding Western Sahara.
The Maghreb region has historically posed challenges for Spanish diplomacy. On one hand, Morocco is a rising power with which Spain shares billions of euros in trade and two land borders in Ceuta and Melilla. As a U.S. ally, Morocco harbors a national obsession with fully incorporating Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony, into its territory. Conversely, Algeria stands as a military and energy powerhouse, maintaining close ties with Russia for military support while also being open to dialogue with the United States.
The diplomatic crisis with Morocco commenced in April 2021 when Spain allowed Brahim Ghali to enter the country for medical treatment against Covid-19. Morocco viewed this as a betrayal, responding with intense diplomatic pressure, which culminated in a significant influx of around 8,000 people into Ceuta in May of that year. This confrontation lasted until March 2022, when Sánchez endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, deeming it the "most serious, credible, and realistic" solution to the enduring conflict. This reconciliation with Morocco subsequently led to a break with Algeria, the primary ally of the Polisario Front, resulting in Algeria recalling its ambassador, suspending the Treaty of Friendship with Spain in June 2022, and blocking much of the commercial exchanges, albeit maintaining gas supplies. However, by late 2023, the relationship began to normalize, marked by the return of an Algerian ambassador to Madrid and the gradual lifting of trade restrictions. This process culminated in the revival of the bilateral treaty and high-level political contacts, including a visit by Spain's Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares to Algeria on July 1.
Is Algeria's change in position genuine, especially considering Spain's ongoing stance on Western Sahara? In Algerian diplomacy, symbols carry significant weight, and they can provide clarity on the state of bilateral relations. The willingness of President Tebboune to personally receive Sánchez is a noteworthy indicator, as the gestures and optics of such meetings are vital. Algerians are not particularly hypocritical in this regard; the warm images and atmosphere witnessed recently should be taken seriously. This visit unequivocally signifies the dawn of a new chapter in bilateral relations.
Interestingly, Spain's ability to mend its ties with Algeria occurs without any signs of improvement in relations between Algeria and Morocco. This reconciliation takes place at a time when the conflict over Western Sahara is closer to escalation than de-escalation, especially following a recent Moroccan drone strike that killed a leading figure in the Polisario Front, Lahbib M. Abdelaziz, who was considered a potential successor to Ghali.
Furthermore, Sánchez's position on issues related to Gaza, Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran has provided Algeria with a political justification for this rapprochement. However, this is not the sole reason behind the shift. When the deterioration of relations occurred, Algeria was closely monitoring the Spanish elections in July 2023, contemplating that a change in government might lead to a reassessment of Spain's position on Western Sahara. However, with Sánchez remaining in power, that possibility vanished. Algeria may have thus concluded that indefinitely prolonging the crisis was becoming increasingly untenable. In light of this uncertainty, pragmatism has likely prompted Algeria to restore its ties with the existing government, despite the latter's continued support for Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara.
As reported by elperiodico.com.
