Understanding Spain's Strategic Alliances
The diplomatic ties between Spain and its neighboring countries, Morocco and Algeria, are characterized as being of 'good friendship.' This sentiment is articulated in Spain's National Security Strategy, approved by the Spanish government in December 2021. It emphasizes a relationship built on mutual respect for territorial boundaries. Rather than being perceived as a military threat, Morocco is depicted in this strategic document as a significant ally in addressing pressing concerns that revolve around two critical risks: jihadist terrorism and organized crime. The substantial military superiority that Spain holds over Morocco serves as a crucial deterrent against any potential military aggression, a scenario deemed highly improbable and fraught with risk, especially considering Spain's membership in both NATO and the European Union.
However, the document raises concerns regarding 'hybrid strategies,' a modern approach to warfare that encompasses undeclared attacks, misinformation campaigns, digital incursions, and migration pressure tactics, without specifically naming Morocco as the aggressor. Notably, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez condemned the mass entry into Ceuta on July 30 and 31 as a violation of Spain's territorial integrity but attributed the act not to Morocco but to immigration mafias.
The NATO Dilemma and Military Preparedness
Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which underscores NATO's foundational purpose, mandates member states to defend one another against attacks from third parties. However, its applicability does not extend to Ceuta and Melilla, leading to some ambiguity. Article 6, which elaborates on territorial application, confines itself to Europe, North America, and Turkey, explicitly excluding Ceuta, Melilla, as well as the overseas territories of France and the British Isles. Nonetheless, the geographical proximity of these cities allows for their defense from Spanish bases in the south, which are indeed shielded under the protection of Article 5.
While no analyst considers a military attack from Morocco on Ceuta and Melilla to be likely, it does not imply that Spain lacks contingency plans to counter such a scenario. A long-circulated strategy known as 'Operation Ballesta' has been outlined by military leadership, which involves deploying airborne forces behind Moroccan offensive lines. This summer's crisis in Ceuta coincided with territorial claims made by several Moroccan ministers, including the Minister of Islamic Affairs, Ahmed Toufiq, a royal appointee. Additionally, there have been circulating rumors online regarding alleged military plans to seize Ceuta.
These scenarios appear to be technical speculations by individuals but may also stem from disinformation campaigns with unclear origins aimed at fostering a sense of vulnerability. One such campaign surfaced from the account 'Defense Atlas' on social media platform X, which reported on an operation dubbed 'Ceuta Liberation' that purportedly could enable Morocco to capture the Spanish city within hours. This information lacks a factual basis; however, some analysts argue it serves as a disinformation tool generated from within the neighboring country.
The alleged plan reportedly targets military sites such as the La Carraca arsenal in San Fernando and the Morón base in Seville, while also attempting to highlight Morocco's acquisition of missiles from the United States. In April 2023, the U.S. Defense Department's Security Cooperation Agency announced a 'possible military sale to the Government of Morocco of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)' valued at €524.2 million. These HIMARS systems gained prominence during the Ukraine war, and according to the same official communication, Morocco has acquired M57 ATACMS missiles capable of striking targets up to 300 kilometers away. However, Morocco's military ambitions are more closely tied to issues surrounding Western Sahara and its contentious relationship with Algeria than with Spain, illuminating the complexities underlying the interactions between these three nations.
As reported by diariodecadiz.es.
