The Shifting Landscape of the Sahara Conflict
The ongoing Sahara dispute is increasingly recognized as a direct confrontation between Morocco and Algeria, with the Polisario Front acting as a proxy for Algerian interests. This assessment comes from a comprehensive report by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a prominent foreign policy think tank based in Moscow. The nearly 100-page document delves into various conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, shedding light on how Morocco’s stance regarding its territorial integrity has gained strength in recent years, both on diplomatic and political fronts, while the influence of Algeria's proxies, particularly the Polisario Front, has waned considerably.
The report underscores that following the Polisario’s breach of the 1991 ceasefire in November 2020, the ensuing armed confrontations have been characterized as sporadic and low-intensity, with the separatist militias failing to inflict significant damage on Moroccan military forces. This lack of effectiveness highlights a shift in the balance of power, favoring Morocco.
Moroccan Sovereignty and International Support
RIAC emphasizes Morocco’s unwavering diplomatic doctrine, which firmly asserts that the Sahara region is an essential part of the kingdom's identity, supported by historical, traditional, and legal arguments. The report indicates that Morocco has bolstered this position by fully integrating its southern provinces into its administrative framework and committing substantial resources to developmental projects aimed at enhancing the region's infrastructure and economy.
Furthermore, the think tank draws attention to Algeria's pivotal role in the conflict, characterizing the Polisario as heavily reliant on Algerian political and economic support for its survival. The dynamics of the dispute are increasingly perceived not merely as a conflict between Morocco and the Polisario but rather as one that pits Morocco against Algeria. RIAC notes that the Polisario primarily manages the Tindouf camps through a clientelist system that depends on international aid and support from Algeria.
On the international front, Morocco has witnessed a surge in global backing, which is evident in the decreasing number of nations that recognize the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). The report states that recognition of the SADR has plummeted from approximately 80 countries to fewer than 40, predominantly among failed and authoritarian regimes. The Moroccan autonomy plan, proposed in 2007, continues to be the primary framework for international discourse, advocating for broad self-governance while maintaining Moroccan sovereignty.
Moreover, the RIAC highlights the significance of the United States' recognition of Moroccan sovereignty during the Trump administration, marking a pivotal diplomatic moment that has encouraged other Western nations to align more closely with Rabat. The strengthening of Franco-Moroccan relations, particularly in 2024–2025, is also noteworthy, as demonstrated by a letter from French President Emmanuel Macron, reaffirming France's belief in Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara.
According to a recent analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Morocco emerges as the diplomatic victor in its longstanding struggle to assert its sovereignty over the Sahara territory, particularly following the adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2797. This resolution, passed on October 31, signifies a substantial shift in international consensus regarding the conflict. The UK, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has joined other major powers in expressing clear support for Morocco’s autonomy plan, which is regarded as the most credible and pragmatic basis for resolving the dispute. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has also defended this new position before the Spanish Parliament, describing Morocco's autonomy plan as the most serious, realistic, and credible solution to the ongoing conflict.
As reported by northafricapost.com.
