The Ongoing Cold War Between Spain and Morocco
The migration crisis in Ceuta represents merely the latest chapter in a complex and often covert struggle between Spain and Morocco, two nations that are officially economic allies yet openly geopolitical adversaries. An investigation by the Spanish media outlet Infobae highlights the various tools of influence that Rabat employs against Madrid, including espionage via the controversial Pegasus software, manipulation of migration flows, and a tacit acceptance of hashish trafficking. According to a veteran source from Spain's National Intelligence Center (CNI), the tension between the two countries has evolved into a long-standing cold war characterized by mutual distrust and competing interests.
The Migration Surge as a Signal
Spanish intelligence agencies interpret the recent influx of approximately 80,000 migrants crossing into Ceuta by the end of July as a calculated "reminder" from Rabat, showcasing its ability to exert pressure on Madrid. This situation is not merely an overflow caused by human trafficking networks or a consequence of a Supreme Court ruling; rather, it reflects a deliberate decision by Moroccan authorities to relax border surveillance, thus sending a stark warning to Spain. Official data from the Spanish Ministry of the Interior indicates that between January 2015 and mid-August 2026, security forces intercepted over 56,000 migrants from Morocco at the land borders of Ceuta and Melilla. This figure does not account for those who successfully crossed the border, emphasizing the scale of the issue.
Analysts suggest that the Ceuta crisis extends beyond simple border disputes, as this enclave holds significant strategic importance for both Spain and the European Union due to its location at the Strait of Gibraltar. The real danger lies not in military confrontation, but in a so-called "gray zone" strategy employed by Morocco, which combines diplomatic pressure, instrumentalization of migration, espionage, and a permissive approach to drug trafficking. This multifaceted tactic aims to gradually undermine Spain's position without triggering outright conflict.
Furthermore, the recent surge in migration has been linked to retaliatory measures by Moroccan security services, following the publication of investigations revealing the extent of espionage activities conducted by Morocco against Spanish officials. These revelations, which were made public by a consortium of European media outlets, highlighted that Morocco had targeted numerous Spanish phone numbers with the Pegasus spyware, raising alarms about the extent of surveillance conducted by the Moroccan General Directorate for Territorial Surveillance (DGST).
At the same time, the ongoing drug trafficking crisis complicates the geopolitical landscape. Morocco remains one of the world's leading producers of hashish, with around 70% of the hashish entering Europe originating from its territory. Spanish authorities have reported significant increases in drug seizures, indicating a growing challenge in combating this illicit trade. Despite the tensions, economic interdependence remains a critical factor, with bilateral trade between Spain and Morocco reaching record levels. Both countries appear to navigate this complex relationship with caution, balancing cooperation with an underlying current of rivalry.
As reported by elwatan.dz.
