Challenges in Observing the New Moon for Muharram 1448
The astronomical calculations indicate that the crescent moon marking the beginning of Muharram 1448 H is expected to be observed under difficult conditions, raising doubts about its visibility, which heavily relies on weather conditions. According to estimates provided by Hassan Talibi, an astronomer associated with the Islamic Crescent Observation Project, the conjunction, which is the alignment of the Moon between the Earth and the Sun, is set to occur on Monday, June 15, 2026, at 14:55.
As the sun sets, the age of the moon will be approximately 16 and a half hours in eastern Morocco and nearly 17 hours in the southern provinces. The moon’s height above the horizon at sunset is predicted to be between 8 and 9 degrees, with an estimated visibility duration above the horizon ranging from 51 to 56 minutes after sunset. Talibi emphasizes that astronomical parameters can yield visibility ranging from certain to impossible. Between these extremes, certain configurations are deemed 'intermediate,' making observations uncertain and heavily dependent on weather conditions.
This situation echoes a similar occurrence noted during the previous month of Shawwal, where visibility uncertainties regarding the crescent moon that heralded Eid al-Fitr caused confusion. In such cases, visibility is described as challenging but not impossible, as the clarity of the sky plays a crucial role. Regarding the crescent moon of Muharram 1448, similar reservations apply. Despite an estimated visibility duration of nearly one hour post-sunset, the moon's young age and low elevation above the horizon might hinder observation, particularly due to significant residual solar brightness.
Based on these factors, the observation of the crescent moon on June 15 is considered 'possible but uncertain,' largely contingent on weather conditions. Consequently, the most likely scenario, according to our expert, is the completion of 30 days of Dhu al-Hijjah, which would place the commencement of Muharram 1448 H on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. These estimations also rely on maps published by the International Astronomy Center, which classify Morocco within a 'pink zone,' indicating conditions where crescent observation is 'possible but uncertain,' as opposed to green zones where visibility is deemed certain.
It is important to note that the official start of the Hijri months remains dependent on visible observations, with astronomical calculations serving merely as a guideline. The official announcement will come from the Ministry of Habous and Islamic Affairs.
As reported by medias24.com.
