The political landscape surrounding migration issues in Ceuta, a Spanish autonomous city, has garnered significant attention, particularly following the crisis of 2021 when over 72,000 individuals entered the city. This situation was highlighted in an article published on June 30, 2025, by Professor Xavier Torrens of the University of Barcelona, in collaboration with Professor Luis de la Corte Ibáñez from the Autonomous University of Madrid. In a conversation with EL PERIÓDICO, Torrens, who is the director of the Master's program in Strategic Security Management, emphasized that the presidency of Donald Trump represents a critical opportunity for Moroccan King Mohammed VI to achieve his objectives, especially given the strong diplomatic ties between Morocco and the United States. This relationship stands in contrast to the political tensions between Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Trump.
Torrens firmly believes that the United States is facilitating Morocco's strategic maneuvers, whether regarding the Western Sahara or the cities of Ceuta and Melilla. He pointed out that when the Spanish government, under Sánchez, relinquishes its stance on the Sahara, it effectively loses a vital negotiating tool. This loss is compounded by the fact that reverting such decisions is unlikely before January 2029, when a new American president will take office, thereby increasing the risks associated with Ceuta and Melilla.
Crisis Dynamics: Black Swan and Grey Rhinoceros
To understand the events in Ceuta, Torrens introduced two critical concepts: "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros." The term "black swan" refers to the unforeseen mass entry experienced in 2021, which, though shocking at the time, is now recognized as an anomaly with significant repercussions. In contrast, the impending recurrence of such events should now be viewed through the lens of the "grey rhinoceros"—a known and anticipated threat that is likely to manifest again. Torrens noted historical precedents from Morocco, particularly referencing the Green March of November 6, 1975, suggesting that King Mohammed VI may adopt similar tactics, favoring hybrid warfare methods such as mass entries into Ceuta rather than traditional military conflict.
He argued that Mohammed VI has effectively institutionalized the use of human waves as a state policy towards Ceuta and Melilla. Although neither Torrens nor De la Corte could predict the timing of these events, they had previously indicated in their article in the International Security Review that intelligence services needed to remain vigilant about these possibilities since at least 2021. A pressing question that remains unaddressed publicly is what would happen if Mohammed VI were to orchestrate mass migrations similar to those seen in the past, potentially using them as a political tool against Spain and Europe.
Strategic Responses and Government Accountability
Torrens characterized the situation in Ceuta as a highly probable threat, one that, according to some experts, could have significant political ramifications, potentially impacting upcoming elections. He refrained from speculating on who within the government might have ignored this threat but noted that there seems to be a discord between the Interior and Defense ministries regarding previous warnings. He stressed that the Spanish government should have proactively communicated with Morocco, ensuring that it was aware of the implications of any potential mass migration events.
Furthermore, he pointed out that the intervention of the military might be necessary in such crises, arguing that the responsibility for defending Ceuta and Melilla should not rest solely with the Interior ministry. A more robust involvement from the Defense ministry is essential, even if such a stance poses political challenges. The implications of inaction in public policy are significant; as Torrens noted, the Spanish government’s assertion that Morocco did not participate actively in the migration crisis could be an attempt to maintain diplomatic relations with its neighbor.
In conclusion, Torrens posited that the Spanish government must operate under the assumption that the crisis in Ceuta is part of a larger Moroccan strategy to reclaim the territory, potentially leveraging it as a political weapon. With historical events serving as catalysts for future migrations, it remains critical for Spain to recognize and prepare for the complex dynamics at play.
As reported by elperiodico.com.
