Declining Tomato Production in Spain Due to Moroccan Competition
Recent independent studies indicate a projected decrease in tomato production in Spain by 1.2% over the next decade, primarily attributed to fierce competition from non-EU countries, particularly Morocco, alongside rising production costs and challenges in accessing labor. This analysis was presented by the European Commission's Tomato Expert Group during a meeting in Brussels, which discussed market perspectives up to 2035 and current pricing trends, as reported by the Spanish Federation of Associations of Producers and Exporters of Fruits and Vegetables (Fepex).
The expert group expressed concerns regarding escalating costs, competitive pressures from third countries, and ongoing production uncertainties. Despite a decline within the Murcia tomato sector, it still ranks second nationally in export-oriented production, although it lags significantly behind Andalusia and its reference area of Almeria. Last year, Murcia exported 60,119 tons of tomatoes, accounting for 10% of the national total, valued at 104 million euros. In the 2025-26 campaign, Spanish tomato production fell by 2%, but improvements in prices have not translated into increased profitability due to rising expenses.
Consumer Behavior and Economic Pressures
During the recent meeting, participants highlighted a growing caution among European consumers due to a decline in purchasing power alongside economic uncertainty, which is reshaping buying habits. In France, while warmer temperatures initially boosted tomato consumption, this was later curtailed by significant price hikes, leading to a considerable drop in demand. In Spain, the data indicated a 0.5% reduction in vegetable consumption.
Looking ahead, projections from Wageningen University suggest a relatively stable evolution in tomato consumption, with moderate growth expected between 0.3% and 0.6% in Spain and the Netherlands. Experts also noted additional challenges affecting the sector, such as climate change and various diseases. The expert group comprised officials from the European Commission and sector representatives from member states, including Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Poland. The Spanish delegation, led by Ignacio Antequera of Fepex, presented findings from the 2025/2026 campaign characterized by stable planting areas but a near 2% drop in production.
This decline can be linked to the adoption of virus-resistant varieties that are less productive, phytosanitary issues, and adverse weather conditions. Nevertheless, it was emphasized that the Spanish sector demonstrates remarkable adaptability in face of such adversities, successfully meeting its commercial commitments and thereby enhancing client confidence.
The Spanish representation also noted the intense pressure regarding production costs, which have surged in recent months due to rising energy, fertilizer, and petroleum-derived costs. Specifically, energy and transport costs increased by 16%, while plastics, packaging, and containers saw an 18% rise. Consequently, despite favorable pricing trends throughout the campaign, producers' profitability has not improved correspondingly, according to the federation.
Particular concern was raised regarding cherry tomatoes, where a decline in cultivation area, especially for loose products, has been attributed to competition from Morocco and discrepancies in labor costs and regulatory conditions. The lower prices of Moroccan products have exerted downward pressure on Spanish prices, with cherry tomato production in the Murcia region decreasing in recent years due to labor costs associated with harvesting and handling, which are considerably higher than those in Morocco.
Competition from third countries remains a common concern among member states. Fresh tomato imports from non-EU countries have reached 773,000 tons, with Morocco accounting for 527,000 tons. Conversely, EU exports to third countries totaled 383,000 tons, predominantly to the United Kingdom. Many of these challenges are shared across European production, as emphasized by Belgium, the Netherlands, and Poland, which have all faced issues stemming from recent heatwaves, heavy rainfall, viral outbreaks, and high energy costs.
In the first seven months of this year, Morocco maintained its position as the leading source of fruit and vegetable imports to Spain, valued at 982 million euros, marking a 5% increase compared to the previous year. Following Morocco were Peru at 361 million euros, Portugal at 242 million, France at 225 million, Costa Rica at 211 million, and the Netherlands at 170 million. Although imports from Morocco decreased by 8% in volume to 373,958 tons, the rise in value underscores Morocco's significance as Spain's foremost non-EU supplier.
Spanish producers and exporters are urging the European Parliament not to ratify the upcoming modification of the EU Association Agreement with Morocco, which would provisionally extend tariff advantages to territories in the Sahara. This modification could expand irrigated land in Western Sahara by 13,000 hectares, creating direct competition with EU products. The Murcia and Spanish agricultural sectors are mounting another offensive in Brussels against the EU's concessions to Morocco, advocating for adherence to international law. As reported by laverdad.es.
