Future Outlook for Moroccan Listed Companies
As we look ahead to 2027, the financial landscape for listed companies in Morocco is poised for substantial growth, albeit with a notable shift in the driving forces behind this trend. According to BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR), the anticipated revenue for a selection of 40 companies is projected to reach 372.9 billion dirhams in 2027, marking a 7.2% increase from the previous year’s forecasted 347.8 billion dirhams. This follows a robust performance in 2026, largely fueled by mining activities and several exceptional factors. However, the underlying engines of growth are expected to evolve, with banking, construction, and infrastructure playing increasingly prominent roles in the economic narrative.
The net income for the group is expected to rise from 50.6 billion dirhams in 2026 to 54.1 billion dirhams in 2027, yet it is essential to understand the nuances of this growth. Notably, the profits in 2026 will be positively skewed by a significant capital gain of 1.5 billion dirhams from Managem, which involves the sale of a 45% stake in the Gabgaba gold project in Sudan. When these extraordinary items are excluded, the profit growth for the analyzed companies would shift from 7.3% in 2026 to a more substantial 11.2% in 2027. Furthermore, the overall organic growth is anticipated to reach 10.2% in 2027, contrasting with a reported growth of 6.9%, influenced by the absence of the one-off gain from Gabgaba.
Emerging Trends in Banking and Construction
Central to this evolving economic landscape is the banking sector, which BKGR predicts will see a net profit growth of 12.3% in 2026, reaching 19.7 billion dirhams. A significant factor contributing to this growth is the reduction in risk costs, with an expected decrease of 17.2% across financial institutions, leading to a more favorable risk rate. However, this trend is expected to plateau in 2027, with risk costs projected to rise by 6% alongside anticipated credit expansions. The banking sector is expected to become the leading contributor to organic profit growth in 2027, driven by increased demand for credit fueled by large infrastructure projects and corporate investments.
In the construction sector, a remarkable shift is also anticipated. BKGR forecasts a profit increase of 14.3% in 2027, compared to a modest 2.3% in 2026. This growth is expected to be supported by a 12.7% rise in sector revenues, which would amount to nearly 63.9 billion dirhams as project backlogs begin to convert into sales. The acceleration of road, rail, airport, and sports project initiatives leading up to the 2030 World Cup is expected to further energize this sector. Notably, SGTM is anticipated to witness a 20.8% revenue growth, reflecting the positive sentiment surrounding construction activities.
However, it is essential to recognize that while these sectors show promise, there are inherent risks associated with execution, including fluctuating input costs and resource mobilization challenges. The electricity sector is another significant area of growth, projected to experience a 53.5% increase in net income, significantly buoyed by TAQA Morocco's initiatives and diversification into renewable energy projects.
Industry-wide, the outlook is not uniformly bright; the mining sector, for instance, is expected to see a dramatic decline in profits by 19.2% in 2027 after a near-doubling of profits in 2026, reflecting the volatility of metal prices and production assumptions. Likewise, the insurance sector anticipates substantial growth in premiums acquired, driven by life insurance collections, yet profitability remains under pressure due to claims and technical losses.
Despite the promising forecasts, the road ahead for Moroccan listed companies is fraught with challenges, including construction costs, raw material prices, and the overall economic environment. The ability of companies to navigate these complexities while executing projects efficiently will be critical to achieving the projected growth.
As reported by leseco.ma.
