Brazil-Morocco Relations: A Steady Continuity
Following the decisive victory of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva in the October 2026 elections, where he triumphed over conservative rival Flavio Bolsonaro, attention now shifts toward the implications of this win on Brazil's relationships outside Latin America, especially with Morocco. Researchers in international relations have pointed out that the dynamics between Rabat and Brasilia are set to evolve under the banner of continuity rather than rupture. This is primarily because the interactions between the two nations are dictated by state interests rather than party politics or ideological positioning.
Abdelali Barouki, a university professor specializing in Iberian and Latin American studies at Mohammed V University in Rabat, emphasized that the Moroccan-Brazilian relationship fundamentally operates on a state-to-state logic. He characterized the ties as historically stable, regardless of governmental changes or the shifting power between the left and right. Drawing from Lula's previous terms, which saw a significant positive impact on relations with Morocco and a commitment to maintaining bilateral agreements, Barouki stated that Lula's affiliation with the left does not typically alter the nature of these relationships. He noted that there has not been any regression in Brazil's cooperation or stance on the Moroccan Sahara issue.
Barouki also drew a distinction between Brazil and other countries with fragile economies that sometimes rely on radical ideological frameworks for their diplomatic choices, leading to antagonism towards Morocco. In contrast, he believes Brazil consistently maintains its positive relations with Rabat, irrespective of governmental or ideological transformations, highlighting that trade exchanges and agreements established since the 1990s have been on an upward trajectory.
Food Security: The Core of Cooperation
From an economic standpoint, Mohamed Atif, a professor of international relations at Abdurrahman University in El Jadida and a researcher on Latin American affairs, provided insights into this continuity. He reminded that Morocco was among the first nations to recognize Brazil's independence and that their partnership has significantly thrived since 2000, reaching record levels of approximately $2.8 billion by 2024. After Lula's election victory, Atif highlighted that Morocco is a crucial trading partner for Brazil in Africa, supplying phosphatic fertilizers that bolster the Brazilian agricultural sector. In return, Morocco imports animal proteins and red meats from Brazil, with the rate of these imports having surged recently. Thus, Atif considers agriculture and food security to be the strongest pillars of cooperation between the two countries.
Commercial data reflect this interconnectedness, with annual exchanges almost evenly distributed between Moroccan exports of about $1.4 to $1.6 billion and Brazilian imports ranging from $1.4 to $1.5 billion. In terms of investments, "OCP Neutra Crops," a subsidiary of the OCP Group, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture on September 18, determining a reference volume of 3.8 million tons of phosphatic fertilizers for the period of 2026-2027. While this memorandum does not represent a confirmed order, its execution hinges on commercial conditions negotiated by operators and addresses approximately 76% of the deficit Brazil anticipates for the 2026-2027 season.
Brazil also stands out as a key supplier of cattle for slaughter in Morocco, especially in light of the kingdom's efforts to alleviate pressure on its national herd over the past three years.
Politically, Atif pointed out that the ruling Workers' Party adopts a positive stance, noting the favorable assessment of Morocco's autonomy initiative in the Sahara as a model for dialogue based on international law that benefits development in the southern regions. He recalled that Brazil has never recognized the fictitious entity, unlike other Latin American countries whose positions have fluctuated depending on governmental affiliations; the left has recognized it at times, while the right has withdrawn that recognition at others. However, Brazil's position has remained steadfast regardless of whether right or left-wing parties have assumed power.
This constancy is evidenced by historical milestones, such as the royal visit to Brasilia in November 2004, which established direct dialogue between the two leaderships, and the discussions held in Rabat in June 2024 between Nasser Bourita and Brazilian counterpart Mauro Vieira, which resulted in a joint statement praising Morocco's serious and credible efforts to resolve the conflict.
Barouki further emphasized that Morocco enjoys a 'comfortable diplomatic margin' thanks to its party plurality and openness to various ideological frameworks, allowing it to engage with diverse political spectrums in southern countries while advocating for its national cause without being tied to a specific ideological reference.
On a multilateral level, Atif noted that both countries are emerging powers with significant influence in the Global South and a remarkable presence in 'summit diplomacy,' providing them with opportunities to enhance coordination on shared economic and trade issues. He viewed the summit of South American and African nations as a model framework for cooperation, and Morocco's rising status in Africa enables it, alongside Brazil, to play impactful roles within the United Nations and the Security Council in shaping international resolutions.
The Atlantic space represents the broadest horizon for this rapprochement; the Atlantic Initiative, aimed at facilitating access for Sahel countries to the ocean through Moroccan ports, offers Brazilian stakeholders a logistical platform towards emerging African markets, aligning with Brasilia's ambition to connect the southern shores of the Atlantic.
With a rich historical backdrop, a trade exchange nearing $2.8 billion, and a political stance that remains unshaken by changes in governance, Lula's fourth term appears to be an extension of a cumulative path rather than a turning point in the relationship between two countries linked by the logic of interests before affiliations.
As reported by hespress.com.
