Insight from Ambassador Moataz Ahmedine on US-Iran Relations
In a recent statement, former Egyptian Ambassador to the United Nations, Moataz Ahmedine, expressed skepticism regarding the possibility of reaching a resolution in the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran prior to the upcoming American elections. According to Ahmedine, the situation is further complicated by Donald Trump's recent assertions that significant decisions regarding Iran might follow a meeting of Gulf leaders at the United Nations General Assembly. While he acknowledges that there is a strategy in play, he urges caution against overestimating the implications of these statements.
During an interview on Cairo News Channel, Ahmedine elaborated that there is currently no ground intervention in the conflict, emphasizing that such action would necessitate substantial troop mobilization akin to the operations preceding the Iraq invasion in 2003 and the liberation of Kuwait in 1990. At this moment, however, he believes that the conditions for military ground involvement are not present.
Potential Military Actions and Diplomatic Implications
Ahmedine outlined the likelihood of Trump considering a more robust military strike than the sporadic attacks seen in recent months, with the "Mount of Aas" potentially being a target. He pointed out that the Security Council has witnessed Russia and China exercising their veto power against the establishment and renewal of sanctions against Iran. Consequently, there is no agreement on directly transferring the Iranian dossier to the Security Council, and as of now, no date has been set for this discussion.
He warned that should the Iranian issue be brought up, both Russia and China are likely to use their vetoes. Furthermore, he noted that these countries would likely strive to prevent a meeting aimed at executing the International Atomic Energy Agency's resolutions regarding Iran.
Ahmedine emphasized that both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu might seek to execute a substantial strike, possibly against the Mount of Aas, while noting Netanyahu's shortened stay in New York for the General Assembly, indicating a strategic focus on these discussions. He predicts that any such military action would not unleash a full-scale Iranian response, suggesting that Iran would refrain from retaliating broadly across the Gulf in the event of an attack on the Mount of Aas. He remarked on the repeated nature of Trump's statements, highlighting a narrative where the U.S. would obliterate Iran, while Iran maintains its stance of resilience against capitulation.
As reported by elwatannews.com.
