The large-scale influx of immigrants into Ceuta on July 30 and 31 was not a spontaneous event triggered by an overwhelming migration wave; rather, it was a meticulously planned and coordinated operation designed to obscure its origins. This assertion is one of the primary conclusions drawn from a report prepared by the National Center for Immigration and Borders (CENIF) of the National Police, which has been submitted to the National Court currently investigating these events.
The police report, which has been accessed by eleconomista.es, includes a series of alerts indicating that the risk of a mass entry had been identified prior to the crisis. On July 27, the Provincial Brigade of Foreigners and Borders in Ceuta forwarded a communication form to the National Center for Communications, warning of a potential "mass entry by swimming of immigrants," referencing the Supreme Court ruling 814/2026 from July 8, which stated that immediate returns could not be applied. Just two days later, on July 29, CENIF issued a warning to border posts in Ceuta and Melilla, explicitly cautioning about the risk of entries for July 30. The chain of alerts continued throughout the crisis, warning of a potential attempt to transfer immigrants who had entered Ceuta irregularly, alongside signals of a looming collapse of the two autonomous cities.
Moreover, subsequent alerts extended the risk beyond the autonomous city. On July 30, police warned of possible movements toward Cádiz and the Gibraltar area from immigrants who had arrived irregularly in Ceuta, while on July 31, a warning was issued to the Canary Islands about the risk of an increase in the arrival of irregular boats.
Inadequate Response Capacity
This data is significant as it shifts the debate not only to what occurred at the Moroccan border but also to Spain's capacity to respond. In fact, the report itself indicates that the investigation should analyze "other subjects with potential responsibilities" and should not be limited to actions taken within Moroccan territory. Among the elements to be examined is the alert from July 29 and "the process of mass entry and its connection to the decision to open access points." The document is particularly forceful in stating that "we are not facing a spontaneous or incidental event" and that the operation demanded a "high level of technical planning." The police assert that various structures participated in it with a high level of coordination, a shared objective, and "a single organizational reference." Furthermore, the report posits that the migratory aspect of the episode might have merely been the instrument used to execute a broader operation. It concludes that the "migratory purpose operates solely as a formal cover," aimed at promoting and directing a mass flow of people toward the Ceuta border. This hypothesis is supported by the observation that only about 10% of the immigrants who entered ultimately remained in Spanish territory.
The Role of Moroccan Security Forces
One of the most crucial elements of the report is the role attributed to Moroccan security forces. The police indicate that a significant portion of the crossings occurred from the beach of Castillejos to El Tarajal, asserting that immigrants received instructions from Moroccan security forces. In some instances, the document adds, Moroccan agents actively participated in "guiding the crossing through the water" and directing migrants toward the Spanish beach. The police thesis is further supported by an element deemed difficult to explain merely as operational incapacity on Morocco's part: the behavior of its security forces changed dramatically during subsequent calls for action.
Following the events of July 30, a new call for action was disseminated for August 15. According to the report, on this occasion, Morocco responded with a security apparatus that effectively controlled the mobilization, whereas during the entries on July 30 and 31, the Moroccan security structure remained inactive for over 48 hours. For investigators, this contrast constitutes one of the elements that call into question the notion that what transpired in July was simply an overflow situation for Moroccan authorities.
In conclusion, the report situates the events within a dynamic that has been repeated in Ceuta in 2021 and 2024. The police believe there is continuity in previous processes, and the accumulated experience may have refined the mechanism used in 2026. CENIF explicitly refers to "calculated ambiguity and gradual advancement," characteristics associated with so-called "gray zone" strategies. Unlike conventional operations, these actions aim to obscure the identification of their perpetrators and combine various instruments to achieve a goal without resorting to open confrontation. The report discusses a "superior planning" framework, a functional distribution of tasks, and an implicitly shared purpose. Thus, the police's conclusion introduces a geopolitical dimension to the crisis, asserting that the exercise of influence would not be limited to the mobilized immigrants themselves but could be strategically projected onto Spain and the international community.
As reported by eleconomista.es.
