The systematic leak of the report from the Spanish National Center for Migration and Borders (CENIF), concerning the events in Ceuta on July 30 and 31, 2026, represents yet another attempt to export Spain's internal crises to Morocco. A thorough examination of this 55-page document, commissioned by the Spanish National Court (Audiencia Nacional), reveals a fragile narrative that lacks substantive evidence and is riddled with glaring contradictions that undermine the very hypotheses posited by the report itself.
Rather than offering a robust security analysis based on accurate data, the report relies on conjectural conclusions, an analysis of body language, and a blatant disregard for Spain's own failings. This desperate attempt seeks to transform Morocco from a reliable strategic partner in border management into a scapegoat for purely political and judicial grievances in Madrid.
The Absence of Concrete Evidence
The logical structure of the report hinges on a central paradox and striking contradictions that fundamentally strip it of credibility. It accuses the Moroccan state of orchestrating a "planned and organized operation," only to acknowledge in the fifth level of the report (dedicated to "leadership") its complete inability to identify any senior responsibility or sponsoring entity for this operation. How can a security agency assert the existence of strategic direction that exceeds the capabilities of smuggling networks, while simultaneously admitting within the same document that it possesses no evidence linking this alleged movement to the Moroccan state or its security institutions?
To compensate for this intelligence gap, the report's authors resorted to what they termed "behavioral analysis" of open-source images and videos. It is utterly absurd for accusations against a sovereign state to be based on assessments of the clothing of some irregular migrants, their footwear, or their physical appearance, or even their calm demeanor contrary to the path of migration, leading to their classification as "agent provocateurs" (Agents dynamisateurs). This shift from investigative security analysis to mere visual impressions renders the report devoid of any legal, intelligence, or security value, and confirms that the "names and images" that the Spanish media previously claimed the intelligence possessed are nothing more than weak and illusory conclusions that do not meet the level of material evidence required to accuse friendly security agencies that partner in safeguarding Mediterranean security.
A Double Standard Logic
Among the notable analytical missteps of the report is its use of the events of August 15 as a piece of evidence against Morocco, employing a reversed and nonsensical logic. Moroccan authorities demonstrated high competence and strict commitment when they proactively and decisively thwarted the attempted infiltrations called for in mid-August. Instead of acknowledging the effectiveness of Morocco's security approach, the Spanish report twisted this success into a new accusation: that Morocco's ability to control the situation in mid-August is indicative of its deliberate leniency during the events at the end of July.
The report goes even further by adopting an imaginary hypothesis, suggesting that the mobilization on August 15 was merely a "whitewashing maneuver" for the events at the end of July. This presents Morocco with an impossible equation within the current Spanish security mentality: if security arrangements fail against massive and sudden waves of human migration, it is "collusion"; if they succeed in thwarting another similar wave, it is a "performance" and a ploy to whitewash the reputation. This Spanish absurdity reflects a selective use of facts that reveals a premeditated agenda to criminalize Morocco, regardless of its on-ground behavior, ignoring the complexities of managing human crowds that sometimes exceed the capacity of any security apparatus worldwide, including European agencies themselves, while also overlooking the significant human losses and material damages suffered by Moroccan security when confronting the initial waves of migration on July 30 and 31.
Moreover, the report carries a clear and documented condemnation of the Spanish agencies themselves, which the Spanish media attempts to obscure by focusing on Morocco. The document unequivocally acknowledges the existence of early warnings from Spain starting on July 27, followed by an official warning from CENIF on July 29 regarding the likelihood of major breaches, which was succeeded by successive alerts about the risk of "border collapse." Yet, Spanish authorities failed to take sufficient proactive measures to address this internal intelligence datum.
Even more troubling, the Spanish report acknowledges an unprecedented state of informational chaos within its institutions; even by late August, Spanish authorities were unable to accurately determine the number of people who entered or exited Ceuta, with estimates fluctuating randomly between 49,000 and 85,000 individuals. How can an entity that cannot even count who has entered Ceuta and has ignored its own internal warnings position itself as a judge to assess the strategic intentions of a neighboring and partner state?
The emphasis on Morocco is merely a desperate attempt to evade internal accountability regarding the structural weaknesses in the Spanish response to the current migration crisis.
In its attempt to substantiate the theory of "prior organization," the report focuses on the digital campaigns that preceded July 30 through communication platforms such as Facebook, TikTok, and WhatsApp. The report leans on the existence of a high density of Moroccan phone numbers (90.8%) in the studied groups to implicitly conclude a Moroccan institutional involvement. However, it quickly contradicts itself by acknowledging its inability to identify the owners of these numbers, ignoring an intuitive reality: the geography of the event will naturally yield a local digital presence, which does not imply state sponsorship of those events.
The report deliberately marginalized the most critical factor fueling this wave: the misinterpretation and viral spread of a ruling from the Spanish Supreme Court (which was promoted among migrants as a rule: "If you enter swimming, you will not be deported"). The viral dynamics of social media can mobilize tens of thousands in mere hours, whether it concerns a protest, a legal rumor, or the illusion of passage to the "European paradise." Any attempt to dress this complex sociological and digital phenomenon in the garb of an "intelligence conspiracy" reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of modern migration dynamics, which no longer require "classic leadership" to ignite; rather, it suffices to have the triggering factors for it to explode spontaneously.
It is impossible to separate the leak of this report and the nature of its conclusions from the acute polarization currently plaguing the Spanish political landscape. We are faced with a document prepared in a judicial context at the request of Judge María Tardón, which was initially withheld from the political leadership chain to the extent that Interior Minister Grande-Marlaska and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated that there was no evidence incriminating Morocco.
The involvement of politicized police unions like JUPOL, which did not hesitate to accuse Spanish officials of "having ties with Moroccan intelligence," along with the entry of separatist figures like Carles Puigdemont demanding the "decolonization" of Ceuta and Melilla, confirms that the entire issue is not about borders, but rather about a power struggle among rival factions in Madrid.
It has become clear that Morocco is paying the price for Spain's internal conflicts. A state that deploys thousands of security personnel daily to guard its borders and has borne the brunt of managing irregular migration flows to Europe for years cannot have its roles diminished or its commitment questioned in a judicial and security report filled with gaps, assumptions, and an obsession with Morocco.
Moreover, the persistent use of Morocco's name as a tool for settling political scores within Spain will only serve to undermine the foundations of strategic bilateral cooperation, which remains the true safety valve for the entire region, including the security of Spain, which largely relies on its security partnership with Morocco.
As reported by hespress.com.
