Recent demographic research has unveiled a significant and historic decline in birth rates across Morocco and its neighboring countries, indicating a long-term trend that could lead to an aging population and a slowdown in population growth in the region. This study, published by a French demographic institute, highlights alarming statistics that reflect a dramatic shift in fertility rates over recent decades.
The National Institute of Demographic Studies has observed a rapid and simultaneous decrease in fertility rates in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. In the 1970s, the average number of children per woman in these countries ranged from seven to eight, but by the early 1990s, this figure had nearly halved. As of 2024, Morocco's fertility rate has reached a historic low of 1.97 children per woman, while Tunisia's is projected to decline to 1.53 children per woman in the same year, down from 1.58 in 2023. Algeria's fertility rate stands at 2.61 children per woman in 2024, reflecting a different trajectory after experiencing a resurgence in birth rates between 2000 and 2017, when it surpassed three children per woman.
The study attributes the latest decline in fertility rates to several factors. In Tunisia, the trend is partially due to the increasing age of marriage, which has reached an average of 28.9 years for Tunisian women in 2024. Conversely, in Morocco, the decline is more closely linked to the widespread use of contraception, with 71% of married Moroccan women utilizing some form of family planning. This contrasts sharply with Algeria and Tunisia, where the percentage of women using contraceptive methods hovers between 50% and 55%, having decreased from 60% to 65% at the beginning of the millennium.
The demographic shifts observed are also associated with longer educational pursuits and the delayed entry of youth, particularly women, into the labor market. The study concludes that the countries of the Maghreb are experiencing a clear aging trend, with the percentage of individuals under 20 years of age declining notably in Tunisia. Meanwhile, the proportion of adults aged 60 and older has risen dramatically from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024. In Algeria, the pace of aging is more moderate, with 10.5% of the population aged 60 and older in 2023, while Morocco's figure is estimated at 13.8% in 2024. However, the study predicts that the aging process will accelerate naturally in the coming years.
As reported by alyaoum24.com.
