Strong Economic Growth Forecast for Morocco in 2026
As Morocco looks ahead to 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the country's economy will continue to thrive, projecting a GDP growth rate of 4.9%. This growth rate mirrors the robust performance recorded in 2025, showcasing the resilience of Morocco's economic fundamentals. The optimistic outlook was made public following a detailed consultation mission that took place in Rabat from January 29 to February 11, led by IMF mission chief Laura Jaramillo. During this mission, the IMF team engaged with high-ranking officials from the Moroccan government, representatives from Bank Al-Maghrib, and stakeholders from both the public and private sectors.
The impressive growth in 2025 was primarily fueled by strong performances in key sectors such as agriculture, construction, and services. The IMF anticipates that these positive dynamics will persist into 2026, bolstered by ongoing public and private investments and a promising agricultural season, thanks to favorable rainfall patterns. This continued momentum is crucial for sustaining economic stability and growth.
Inflation Control and Fiscal Stability
In terms of inflation, Morocco maintained a commendable average of just 0.8% throughout 2025, largely due to restrained food price pressures. However, the IMF projects a gradual increase in inflation rates, expecting them to rise towards 2% by mid-2027 as a result of previous policy rate reductions and an improving growth environment. On the fiscal side, Morocco demonstrated solid performance, with tax revenues reaching 24.6% of GDP in 2025, a clear reflection of ongoing fiscal reforms and enhanced revenue management practices. The central government's deficit was effectively managed at 3.5% of GDP, an improvement from the initial budget target of 3.8%. The IMF has advised the Moroccan government to allocate a portion of the revenue surplus to rebuild fiscal buffers and increase investments in human capital, which are essential for long-term economic growth.
While the current account deficit is expected to widen modestly due to the high import content associated with the increased public investment, this situation is somewhat mitigated by rising tourism revenues and foreign direct investment inflows. The country's international reserves remain adequate, providing a cushion against potential economic shocks. The IMF has identified several external risks to the economic outlook, including a potential slowdown in the eurozone and volatility in global commodity prices. Furthermore, Bank Al-Maghrib is encouraged to continue its gradual transition towards greater exchange rate flexibility, which is a pivotal step in advancing towards an effective inflation-targeting framework.
As reported by medafricatimes.com.
