Election Results and Political Dynamics
The recent legislative elections held in Morocco on September 23 have significantly reshaped the political landscape within the House of Representatives. The preliminary results revealed that the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) emerged as the frontrunner, securing 97 seats, followed by the National Rally of Independents (RNI) with 66 seats, and the Independence Party with 65 seats. The Justice and Development Party (PJD) came in fourth with 54 seats. These results position PAM at the forefront of negotiations to form the next government; however, they do not provide it with a sufficient majority to govern independently.
To establish a governing coalition, PAM will need to ally with other political forces to secure the majority of the 198 seats in the House of Representatives. This comes at a critical time when Morocco is grappling with pressing economic and social challenges, including rising living costs, job creation, enhancement of health and educational services, and strengthening social protection. These issues will undoubtedly dominate discussions surrounding the new government's agenda.
Shifts in Political Power and Voter Engagement
The initial results showcase a clear shift in political power compared to the previous legislative elections held in 2021. In those elections, the RNI topped the results with 102 seats, followed by PAM with 86 seats and the Independence Party with 81 seats. This time, PAM has taken the lead, with RNI slipping to second place while the Independence Party maintained its position among the key players. Notably, the resurgence of the PJD is one of the most significant transformations, as it increased its representation from just 13 seats in 2021 to 54 seats in the current results, re-establishing its influential presence in the House of Representatives, even if it still falls short of a governing majority.
Voter turnout in this election was notably low at 38.08%, a stark decline from 50.86% in 2021 and 42.27% in 2016, indicating a drop of approximately 12.8 percentage points. This decline may dominate political discussions moving forward as roughly six million voters participated, with turnout varying across regions. Southern regions reported higher-than-average participation rates, with 77% in Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra and 61% in Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab. The significant drop from 2021 raises questions about the capacity of political parties to mobilize voters, particularly the youth, and to convince them that their political participation can lead to tangible improvements in their daily lives.
The presence of young voters has been a critical issue in this election, especially with the rise of Generation Z as a vocal force advocating for education, health, job opportunities, and enhanced public services. However, young people aged 18 to 24 constitute only about 4% of the registered voters, while those aged 25 to 34 make up around 15%. In contrast, registered voters aged 60 and above comprise about 29%. These figures do not necessarily indicate a lack of political interest among youth but rather highlight a gap between their concerns about public issues and their engagement in the electoral process. Previous protests by Generation Z showcased their ability to mobilize and utilize social media to voice demands, yet their participation in the voting booth remains less pronounced.
As the new government takes shape, it will face significant challenges, not only in securing a parliamentary majority but also in convincing younger generations that political participation can result in meaningful changes affecting their daily lives. Several parties attempted to appeal to youth during the campaign, and a number of young candidates emerged; however, the lack of youth representation in electoral lists and parliament remains indicative of a disconnect between the demographic weight of youth and their presence in political institutions.
Following the announcement of preliminary results, the focus will shift from the ballot box to coalition negotiations aimed at government formation. PAM, as the leading party, will require allies to ensure a parliamentary majority. A potential alliance involving PAM, the RNI, and the Independence Party could yield 228 seats, surpassing the majority threshold. However, parliamentary arithmetic alone does not dictate the government’s structure. Negotiations will also involve discussions about the government program, priority setting, and the distribution of responsibilities and ministerial portfolios, alongside the nature of relationships between coalition parties.
As the new government prepares to address a wide array of pressing issues such as employment, purchasing power, health, education, housing, and social protection, it will need to continue implementing economic and social reforms while tackling challenges related to growth, investment, and social inequality. The importance of voter turnout cannot be overstated, as the new government will rely on an assembly formed through coalitions, operating in a society where fewer than four out of ten registered voters participated in the elections. This situation does not undermine the legitimacy of the results, but it does impose an additional responsibility on the government and political parties to rebuild political trust and broaden public engagement.
Ultimately, while the ballot boxes have determined the balance of power within parliament, they have not conclusively established the shape or effectiveness of the forthcoming government in meeting citizens’ aspirations. This will depend on the coalition formed, the program adopted, and its ability to translate electoral promises into concrete policies and outcomes.
As reported by bbc.com.
