Morocco's Phosphate Dominance and Production Challenges
A recent report titled "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026," published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), has revealed that Morocco holds an astonishing 70 percent of the world's phosphate rock reserves, the largest share globally. However, despite this substantial reserve, Morocco's actual share of global phosphate production remains disappointingly low at only 15 percent. Projections within the report indicate that by 2035, Morocco's contribution to the global production capacity of purified phosphoric acid, which is essential for battery manufacturing, will not exceed 5 percent, even though the country possesses the largest reserves and has plans to expand its phosphate extraction activities. This stark contrast between Morocco's reserve size and its production output highlights a fundamental gap in the global supply chains for this strategic material, which has become a cornerstone in the electric vehicle battery industry.
Furthermore, the report emphasizes that China is leading the global production of phosphate rock, accounting for 45 percent of the world's output by 2025, despite holding only 5 percent of the global reserves. The United States ranks third, contributing approximately 10 percent to the global production for the same year. The disparity between Morocco's vast reserves and its limited production capabilities underscores the need for strategic investments and improvements in extraction processes to align with global demand.
Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics
In the realm of purified phosphoric acid, which is a critical component in the manufacturing of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, the report indicates that these batteries are projected to capture 55 percent of the global electric vehicle market and 90 percent of the battery energy storage market by 2025. This marks a significant increase from 15 percent and 30 percent, respectively, in 2020. China currently dominates the production of purified phosphoric acid, accounting for 70 percent of the global output in 2025, with expectations that it will maintain a 75 percent share by 2035. Meanwhile, the United States is expected to occupy the third position with around 5 percent by 2035, followed closely by Canada. Collectively, Morocco, the United States, and Canada are projected to represent over 55 percent of the planned production capacity outside of China by that time.
The report also highlights a growing wave of Chinese investments in Morocco's battery supply chain, primarily driven by the country’s substantial phosphate reserves. Chinese companies such as Gotion, BTR, Huayu, and CNG have been identified as key players in these investments. Notably, Morocco's trade agreements with the European Union and its free trade agreement with the United States provide these Chinese-backed projects with preferential access to European and American markets, creating a strategic platform for circumventing direct export restrictions imposed on Chinese products.
In terms of market dynamics, the report notes a significant uptick in purified phosphoric acid prices, which surged nearly 4 percent to exceed $1500 per ton in the first quarter of 2026, driven by rising input costs, particularly for sulfuric acid, a key component in its production. This price increase has been exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for approximately half of the global maritime trade in sulfur. The price of sulfuric acid has doubled from $144 per ton in February 2026 to $283 per ton by April 2026.
The report also discusses Morocco's position in the cobalt market, noting that the Moroccan company Managem announced in January 2026 plans to convert its cobalt production at the Bou Azzer mine to cobalt sulfate, targeting an annual output of 6,000 tons, including 1,200 tons of pure cobalt. This transformation comes at a time when the cobalt sulfate market, essential for electric vehicle battery production, is expected to grow by nearly 60 percent by 2035, amidst limited production operations outside of China and Indonesia. The report further mentions that the Yoomikor refinery in Kokkola, Finland, is set to contribute approximately 2,500 tons annually of cobalt sulfate in the long term.
Additionally, in the graphite sector, the report highlights a project for a graphite processing and coating plant for battery electrodes in Tangier, Morocco, announced in 2025 and early 2026. This project, alongside similar initiatives in Vitangi, Sweden, and Bécancour, Canada, is expected to produce a combined total of around 20,000 tons of high-quality coated spherical graphite for batteries by 2030. This development aligns with the growing global demand for graphite, which increased by 6 percent in 2025 compared to the previous year, driven almost entirely by the battery sector, which experienced a remarkable growth rate of over 14 percent, while demand from non-battery applications remained relatively stable.
As reported by lakome2.com.
