Spain's National Security Vulnerabilities Amidst Migration Challenges
Recent analyses published by Spain's Ministry of Defense have raised alarming questions about the nation's ability to respond effectively to migration pressures, particularly from Morocco. These studies depict migration flows as a potential "weapon" wielded by Rabat, highlighting what they describe as "hybrid tactics" used against Spain, while simultaneously warning of Madrid's inadequate preparedness to tackle these challenges. Despite this sobering assessment, Spain's Ministry of the Interior has publicly praised the "exemplary collaboration" with Morocco following a significant incident on July 30, when over 70,000 individuals entered Ceuta irregularly. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska commended Morocco's security forces for their efforts and attributed the crisis primarily to human trafficking networks.
In stark contrast to the Ministry of the Interior's stance, the latest reports from the Ministry of Defense portray Morocco in a less favorable light. Several studies from the Superior Center for National Defense Studies (Ceseden) caution about Morocco's capability to leverage immigration as a political pressure tool against Spain, characterizing the management of these migration flows as a "diplomatic weapon" used to extract concessions. This perspective is particularly pertinent in the aftermath of Ceuta's largest migration crisis, with the studies having been published between July 2025 and June 2026. One notable report, released on November 7, 2025, by the Higher School of Armed Forces (ESFAS), authored by Army Engineer Commander Joaquín Peralta, is titled "Migration from Africa to Spain: An Instrument of Foreign Policy." In this work, the commander underscores that Morocco has demonstrated a clear ability to "activate or deactivate" migration flows based on its geopolitical interests, and he cites the May 2021 Ceuta crisis as a prominent example of this strategy.
The report delineates a pressure mechanism that has become increasingly relevant given the events of the summer. It posits that Morocco's cooperation in border control has enabled it to secure economic aid, investments, and enhanced recognition of its strategic significance. According to Peralta, human migration has thus evolved into a diplomatic lever. The study contextualizes this behavior within an "emerging pattern of coercion," where immigration can be manipulated to "disturb, destabilize, or pressure" another state without resorting to military force. Furthermore, it emphasizes that Morocco has integrated migration management into its foreign policy, asserting that these flows can be exploited for coercive purposes.
Assessing Spain's Response and Emerging Threats
The official presentation of Ceseden encapsulates the 2021 crisis as an instance where migration flows were utilized as "diplomatic coercion tools." This is not an isolated observation; four months prior, on July 4, 2025, ESFAS published a document titled "Spanish Deterrence Strategies Against Unshared Threats in the 21st Century," authored by Army Commander Emilio José Arias. This study analyzes the tensions between Morocco and Spain concerning claims on Ceuta and Melilla, assessing Spain's capacity to respond to what Ceseden describes as "hybrid threats" posed by Morocco. It cites various episodes that align with these hybrid strategies, including the closure of the commercial border of Melilla, disinformation operations, the Pegasus case, and immigration. The document specifically highlights the "instrumentalization of immigration as a pressure tactic" during the May 2021 crisis, alleging that Morocco "allegedly" facilitated the mass entry into Ceuta, thereby jeopardizing Spanish security and sovereignty.
The conclusions regarding Spain's response are less than flattering, indicating that the deterrence against these actions faces "serious limitations" and noting the often delayed or weak responses from Spain. Furthermore, the study critiques the shift in the Spanish government's stance regarding Western Sahara, suggesting that the lack of publicized concessions for Spain could indicate a policy of "appeasement," which poses risks by making concessions without understanding the extent of subsequent demands from the counterpart. The third and most recent analysis, published on June 16 by the Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies (IEEE), is part of the Strategic Panorama 2026 and outlines Morocco's increasingly assertive foreign policy. It highlights how Rabat has resorted to triggering diplomatic crises with its traditional partners, using these situations as "pressure instruments" to achieve political objectives, particularly around Western Sahara. All three reports converge on identifying Morocco as a clear and present threat to Spain.
As reported by larazon.es.
