Strategic Investment in Traffic Forecasting
The National Office of Railways (ONCF) has recently initiated a unique tender process, earmarking 5.4 million dirhams for conducting crucial traffic and passenger forecasting studies. This endeavor is not merely a technical exercise; it embodies a strategic ambition to accurately anticipate passenger flows, which is vital for guiding an unprecedented 96 billion dirhams in railway investments. As Morocco embarks on its most significant rail investment program in history, which includes projects such as the high-speed rail line from Kénitra to Marrakech, the extension towards Agadir, the acquisition of 168 new trains, and the development of a suburban rail network (RER), the ONCF understands that the reliability of its traffic forecasts is paramount. Any miscalculation or overly optimistic projection could lead to misallocated billions, making the establishment of robust modeling and forecasting capabilities essential to meet these ambitious goals. Before construction can commence, it is imperative to understand who will be traveling.
Record Year for Passenger Activity
Compounding the urgency of this initiative is the continuous growth of passenger activity within the ONCF. By 2025, a remarkable 56 million passengers are expected to choose train travel, with 5.6 million utilizing the Al Boraq high-speed line. Looking ahead to 2026, the target has been set at 58.5 million passengers, reflecting a 4% increase. The total revenue is projected to exceed 5.4 billion dirhams. In terms of investments, the ONCF anticipates a record commitment of 23 billion dirhams in 2026, accelerating infrastructure modernization, expanding the high-speed line towards Marrakech, acquiring new trainsets, and constructing state-of-the-art stations. In this context of sustained growth and substantial investments, having reliable forecasting models is not merely a luxury; it is an operational necessity.
The detailed specifications, which span sixty-two pages, leave no stone unturned. They delineate four distinct sections, each addressing specific needs of the ONCF. The first section focuses on market share studies and modal shift analysis. Here, the contractor is tasked with understanding how travelers choose between various modes of transport—train, car, bus, and plane—and assessing the potential for a shift towards rail. This includes conducting field surveys, passenger counts, benchmarking mobility behaviors, and creating precise modal choice models. The goal is to pinpoint the attractiveness levers of train travel and evaluate the impact of future projects on modal distribution.
The second section, which is the most structurally significant, pertains to traffic studies for large-scale projects. The contractor will need to develop a multimodal traffic and revenue forecasting model capable of simulating the distribution of flows across the entire network and evaluating the impact of new infrastructures. This model must also account for scenarios where multiple types of trains coexist on the same line. Furthermore, the contractor will be required to create prospective scenarios—considering socio-economic, pricing, and competitive factors—and conduct sensitivity tests to measure the influence of key determinants on demand. It goes without saying that the robustness of this model will be closely scrutinized.
The third section involves updating previous studies, acknowledging that projects evolve, socio-economic conditions change, and competitive landscapes transform. Thus, it is crucial to incorporate these developments to derive revised and reliable estimates that align with current realities. Lastly, the fourth section focuses on annual operational forecasts with fine granularity—daily and weekly. The ONCF aims to anticipate seasonal variations, adjust its offerings in real-time, and respond to exceptional events. The contractor must design a complex forecasting model, meticulously parameterized, that integrates historical traffic data, explanatory variables, competitor information, and external factors.
The 5.4 million dirhams allocated by the ONCF for these studies is a modest sum when viewed against the backdrop of the 96 billion dirham railway program. However, the insights gained from these studies will largely determine the relevance of all subsequent investments. Understanding who will travel, at what pace, on which routes, at what times, and through which modalities is crucial; this knowledge serves as the cornerstone of the ongoing railway revolution. For the public operator, data has become the fuel for the future network.
As reported by leseco.ma.
