Understanding Fertility Rates Across Morocco's Regions
The synthetic fertility index (SFI) in Morocco has reached a concerning low of 1.97 children per woman in 2024, a significant drop from 2.22 in 2014 and 2.5 in 2004. This figure now places the country below the generational replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman, reflecting a trend that has sparked discussions among policymakers and social scientists alike. The latest social indicators released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) reveal stark regional disparities, with the gap between the highest and lowest fertility rates reaching 0.62 points.
Regionally, the Oriental region has the lowest SFI at just 1.73 children per woman, while Drâa-Tafilalet leads with a notably higher index of 2.35. Other regions surpassing the replacement threshold include Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (2.25), Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra (2.17), and Marrakech-Safi (2.13). The remaining eight regions fall below this critical mark, with Fès-Meknès (2.02) and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima (2.01) coming close. Other regions, such as Béni Mellal-Khénifra (1.95), Rabat-Salé-Kénitra (1.91), Casablanca-Settat (1.90), Guelmim-Oued Noun (1.89), and Souss-Massa (1.86) also report figures below the replacement threshold, underscoring a national trend of declining fertility.
The Urban-Rural Divide in Fertility Rates
Interestingly, the data indicates that in ten out of twelve regions, the rural SFI exceeds that of urban areas, mirroring the national trend. For instance, in Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, the rural SFI of 2.49 children per woman surpasses the urban SFI of 1.70 by 0.79 points. Other regions such as Marrakech-Safi and Fès-Meknès exhibit similar trends, with rural rates significantly higher than urban counterparts. However, two regions, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab and Guelmim-Oued Noun, defy this pattern, showcasing higher urban fertility rates. The final fertility rates of women, reflecting the actual number of children born to generations that have completed their reproductive years, confirm these regional disparities. The national average stands at 2.8 children per woman, with urban areas averaging 2.5 and rural areas at a higher 3.4.
Over the past three decades, Morocco has experienced a near halving of its SFI, which plummeted from 3.3 children per woman in 1994 to 1.97 in 2024. This decline affects all age groups, albeit unevenly, with the most fertile age group (30-34 years) witnessing a drop from 152.1‰ to 100.5‰. Notably, the fertility rate among adolescents aged 15-19 has dramatically decreased from 28.6‰ in 1994 to 11.29‰ in 2024, illustrating the shifting demographic landscape. Furthermore, the contraceptive prevalence rate has surged to 72.8% in 2025, a stark contrast to the 19.4% reported in 1979, indicating a significant shift in family planning practices across the nation.
As reported by fr.le360.ma.
