The Trump Administration's approach to international relations has undergone a noticeable shift, particularly concerning its priorities in the Strait of Gibraltar area. A striking aspect of this change is the increasing interest in Morocco over Spain, which has been evident even before the recent crisis in Ceuta. Historical data reveals a significant transformation in trade relations; between 2022 and 2025, U.S. trade (comprising both exports and imports) with Morocco surged by an impressive 37%. Conversely, trade exchanges between the United States and Spain decreased by 4% during the same timeframe. The year 2022 serves as a benchmark, having yielded a record high of nearly $50 billion (over €43 billion) in trade with Spain, but subsequent years have shown a decline despite a projected rebound in 2025.
While the absolute figures remain considerably higher for Spain, the percentage changes reflect a shifting trend in international relations, as indicated by data from the Real Instituto Elcano and the U.S. Census Bureau. This trend is further supported by preliminary data from the first half of 2026, which shows a year-on-year increase of 20% in trade activity compared to the same period in 2025. The trade balance has been notably favorable for the United States since 2022.
Emerging Investment Sectors
One of the most significant aspects of the trade exchange between the two nations is the direction of U.S. investments in Morocco. Using 2022 as a reference point, American capital has increasingly flowed into sectors such as industry, energy, agriculture, automotive, infrastructure, aerospace, renewable energy, and supply chains. Notably, the latter two sectors emerged as investment targets in 2025. However, the first half of this year marks a qualitative shift, with U.S. interests now leaning towards high-value sectors, including digital technology, artificial intelligence, defense, and advanced manufacturing.
Analysis from the Real Instituto Elcano highlights that the economic balance is decidedly in favor of the United States. The free trade agreement established between the U.S. and Morocco in 2006 remains unique as the only one with an African nation. Over the course of two decades, U.S. exports to Morocco have multiplied over eleven-fold, while Moroccan exports to the U.S. have increased four times. Morocco's growing strategic importance is underscored by its burgeoning technological sectors that have captured American interest, moving away from traditional industries like agriculture, phosphates, textiles, and machinery.
Moreover, the geographic position of Morocco enhances its relevance in bilateral relations, being close to European markets (with the EU still as Morocco's primary market) and boasting an expanding industrial base. This aspect reinforces its potential as a nearshoring platform, which refers to the strategy of relocating production processes closer to the end market to improve efficiency and reduce logistical costs. This collaboration is part of broader U.S. efforts to mitigate strategic dependencies on China, as noted in the Elcano analysis.
Ultimately, the risk for Madrid does not stem from a potential replacement of Spain by Morocco as Washington's preferred partner but rather from a gradual erosion of Spain's centrality in key North African matters. The more capable Rabat becomes in positioning itself as an essential interlocutor with the United States on issues concerning the Sahel, West Africa, Atlantic security, and supply chains, the greater its influence will be in the strategic framework within which Spain must advocate for its interests.
Strengthening Bilateral Ties Since 2001
The Real Instituto Elcano provides a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted relationship between Washington and Rabat, noting that their historical rapport has intensified, particularly since the September 11 attacks in 2001. Following these events, the Bush Administration sought to bolster ties with what it deemed moderate Arab governments in the fight against terrorism, and Morocco emerged as a key ally in North Africa. This partnership has flourished across various domains, including military, anti-terrorism, economic, and commercial sectors.
The Arab Spring further solidified mutual trust, as Morocco was perceived as the most stable country in the region. Throughout this period, the U.S. urged the Moroccan regime to uphold human rights and democratic principles. In 2012, the Strategic Dialogue between the U.S. and Morocco was established to formalize their bilateral relationship. Under Donald Trump's administration, Morocco aligned closely with U.S. foreign policy, notably severing diplomatic ties with Iran in 2018, accusing it of providing military support to the Sahrawi Polisario Front.
Additionally, in 2020, Morocco formalized ties with Israel, a country with which it had historical ties through its significant Jewish community. Importantly, Washington has supported Morocco's claims over Western Sahara, with President Joe Biden opting not to revoke the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory. Under Trump's second term, cooperation between the two nations has intensified across all fields, including the economic sector, in stark contrast to the fluctuating dynamics with Spain and even the European Union.
As reported by eleconomista.es.
