Recent scientific data unveils a remarkable shift in the status of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS, in Morocco. Over the span of twelve years, the estimated number of new infections has plummeted by approximately 72%. This decline occurs against the backdrop of a varied transmission map, highlighting disparities among regions and a higher concentration within specific demographics and networks. The findings were published in the esteemed journal The Lancet HIV, which specializes in HIV research and is based on an extensive analysis of 58 integrated biological and behavioral surveys, alongside national data provided by the Ministry of Health and Social Protection covering the period from 2010 to 2023.
Researchers employed a mathematical model utilized by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) to estimate the number of new infections projected for 2025 while identifying their transmission routes. This analysis also examined disparities across six regions: Casablanca-Settat, Fez-Meknes, Marrakech-Safi, Rabat-Salé-Kenitra, Souss-Massa, and Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima.
Estimated Infections Show a Remarkable Decrease
The model estimates a reduction in the number of new infections from 3,163 cases in 2013 to 874 cases by 2025, representing a staggering decline of nearly 72%. The estimation range for 2013 was between 2,404 and 4,110 infections, while the projected range for 2025 is between 715 and 1,136 infections. It is crucial to note that the figure of 874 does not reflect the total number of cases diagnosed by health centers during the year; rather, it represents a statistical estimate derived from a mathematical model based on various epidemiological and behavioral data. This allows for the calculation of new infections that may not have all reached testing or diagnosis. Thus, the figure of 874 should not be interpreted as a definitive administrative total but as a central value derived from the model within a statistical range that reflects the margin of uncertainty in the estimation.
The results indicate that the significant decrease in the total number of infections has been accompanied by a change in the nature of transmission. A substantial proportion of the newly estimated infections is now associated with high-risk groups and their networks.
Transmission Map Shows Regional Variances
The findings estimate that high-risk groups and their networks accounted for approximately 80.2% of the total new infections in 2025, with a statistical range between 41.1% and 100%. Networks associated with men who have sex with men contributed about 42.3% of the estimated new infections, while networks linked to sexual work among men and women accounted for 37%. In contrast, networks connected to individuals who inject drugs contributed approximately 0.9%. Among these demographics, men who have sex with men exhibited the highest rate of new infections, with an estimated rate of 0.80% per person per year, within a statistical range of 0.39% to 1.05%.
The analysis revealed that the transmission map does not portray the same picture across various regions of Morocco. The study covered Casablanca-Settat, Fez-Meknes, Marrakech-Safi, Rabat-Salé-Kenitra, Souss-Massa, and Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, demonstrating a clear disparity in the weight of transmission networks across these areas. This disparity is particularly evident in the contribution of networks linked to men who have sex with men, which represented an estimated 30.1% of new infections in Marrakech-Safi, within a range of 14.3% to 51.1%. In Fez-Meknes, this figure rose to 80.8%, within a range of 67.9% to 93.7%.
Furthermore, the results also highlight the situation of women, who accounted for approximately 37.4% of the estimated new infections. The model suggests that 75% of new infections among women were transmitted by a partner with a viral load sufficient for transmission. This finding underscores the critical importance of early detection within marital relationships and access to treatment, as effective treatment reduces the viral load in the blood and significantly diminishes the likelihood of transmission to partners.
The study also analyzed the continuity of antiretroviral treatment across nine major sites, including Agadir, Beni Mellal, Casablanca, Fez, Marrakech (at two locations), Nador, Oujda, and Rabat. The average treatment retention rate was found to be 91% after two years, 83.8% after three years, and 83.3% after four years, reflecting high levels of retention among individuals accessing care services. Moreover, the average viral load suppression was recorded at 94.9% or higher among individuals who underwent testing within groups that began treatment in 2015, 2016, and 2017, indicating a significant reduction in the viral load in the bloodstream due to treatment.
Modeling suggests that expanding testing remains one of the most critical areas for improving prevention. The results estimate that fully achieving the United Nations goals known as "95-95-95" could reduce the rate of new infections by approximately an additional 52.8%. These goals entail that 95% of individuals living with the virus are aware of their status, 95% of those diagnosed receive treatment, and 95% of those receiving treatment achieve viral suppression.
The research also indicated that increasing condom use by 50% among targeted populations could prevent approximately 39.8% of expected infections, while expanding pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), whether oral or injectable, could significantly reduce infections by levels correlated with coverage and adherence rates. These data illustrate that the landscape of HIV in Morocco is evolving along two parallel trajectories: a substantial decrease in the estimated number of new infections and an increasing clarity of disparities among regions and transmission networks. This reality means that the continuation of this decline is contingent upon directing testing, prevention, and treatment efforts according to the specific data pertinent to each area and the most vulnerable groups.
As reported by hespress.com.
