Energy Dependency and Strategic Implications
Spain plays a pivotal role in Morocco's energy landscape, supplying 20% of its petroleum needs, 10% of its electricity consumption, and 100% of its natural gas. This dependency establishes a foundation for the notion of leveraging energy as a strategic tool against Morocco, particularly in light of recent tensions regarding Spain's territorial integrity, especially in Ceuta. The situation is reminiscent of the diplomatic strain experienced in 2021 when the leader of the Polisario Front received medical treatment in Spain, prompting Morocco to exhibit retaliatory behavior. The effectiveness of any trade retaliation hinges on Morocco's ability to source alternative products to replace those it currently imports from Spain. Currently, Morocco's energy consumption is approximately 20% of that of Spain, heavily reliant on oil (65%) and coal (28%), with gas and renewable sources making up a mere 3% and 4%, respectively. The absence of domestic oil refineries forces Morocco to import all its petroleum products, and while Spain's proximity provides a competitive advantage, Morocco has the potential to seek other suppliers.
Electricity Supply and Commercial Warfare
The dynamics of electric supply present a similar scenario. Given its installed capacity, Morocco can adjust the load factor of its coal and fuel oil plants, potentially closing its natural gas facilities while utilizing its renewable energy sources to meet electricity demands. Although this would result in higher energy costs, it ensures that Morocco would not face shortages. However, if Morocco's energy consumption continues to grow at its current rate, there will be a pressing need for investment in new generation capacity or increased electricity purchases from Spain. Historically, it is more plausible for Morocco to invest in new generation capabilities rather than increase reliance on Spanish imports, as this would place them in a vulnerable position.
While Morocco's gas supply remains non-substitutable due to its exclusive reliance on the gas pipeline connecting it to Spain, the country could manage without gas, as it constitutes a minor fraction of its total energy consumption. The broader implications of potential trade wars reveal that those who stand to lose the most are often the largest sellers, a category in which Spain finds itself. With a significant trade surplus of approximately 2 billion euros annually with Morocco, Spanish businesses can certainly seek alternative markets for their exports, albeit at an increased cost. The potential for a broad commercial conflict raises concerns about whether Spain is defenseless against Moroccan pressures, but the answer is no. One legal avenue could involve enhancing phytosanitary controls at the border for all agricultural exports from Morocco, alongside other more sophisticated measures.
As reported by elconfidencial.com.
