Understanding the Potential for Conflict in North Africa
The 21st century has witnessed an alarming rise in armed conflicts, primarily driven by internal civil dynamics rather than international disputes among sovereign nations, which are now increasingly rare on the global stage. In light of these developments, military doctrine emphasizes the necessity for constant preparedness, even for the most unlikely scenarios. This principle is eloquently captured by the ancient strategist Sun Tzu, whose wisdom remains profoundly relevant: one must not rely on the enemy's absence but rather on one's own capability to confront him.
With this strategic caution in mind, retired Admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat has proposed a disquieting hypothesis regarding security in North Africa. He posits that should Morocco ever decide to pivot away from Western alliances and seek to conceal its internal issues, it might be tempted to instigate a direct conflict with Spain. Such an action would serve to divert attention from its domestic crises by conjuring an external threat.
To execute this strategy, Morocco could employ tactics reminiscent of those used by Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The primary objective would be to position itself as the aggrieved party in the eyes of the international community, as outlined in an analysis published by El Debate. This distraction tactic aims to buy critical time, allowing the aggressor to delay any diplomatic or military responses from outside powers, thereby establishing new territorial realities as fait accompli.
Military and Economic Disparities: Spain vs. Morocco
As the specter of an attack intending to alter borders through force looms, questions arise about the capacity for unilateral resistance. Modern warfare transcends mere troop engagements at the front; it evolves into a comprehensive struggle involving entire societies. In this arena, the scales decidedly tip in favor of Europe.
Spain stands as a fully developed nation, boasting a relatively robust defense industry and vastly superior civil infrastructure. Its network of hospitals, universities, and road systems far surpass those of its African counterpart. This structural strength plays a critical role in sustaining a prolonged military effort should the need arise.
The economic superiority is perhaps the most glaring imbalance between the two nations. Although official military spending figures are often embellished by governments, the difference in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is striking. While Spain allocates a mere 1% of its wealth to its Armed Forces, Morocco exceeds 4%; however, Spain's annual defense budget is double that of the Moroccan kingdom.
Assessing the real military strength today is significantly more complex than in previous eras. The days of the 19th century, when the United Kingdom maintained naval supremacy merely by counting cannons and battleships, are long gone. Similarly, the Cold War metrics, focused on counting armored divisions in the Warsaw Pact, have become outdated. Today, a modern army's true strength lies in its deterrent capacity. The Spanish Armed Forces serve as the last line of defense in Ceuta and Melilla, and their effectiveness is measured by the conflicts they successfully avert. The strategic conclusion is undeniable: if a country is fully prepared to defend itself in North Africa, it will never have a genuine need to do so.
As reported by larazon.es.
