Reassessing North Africa's Role in Global Fertilizer Supply
A recent policy analysis from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in collaboration with MENA2050, emphasizes the strategic importance of North Africa in securing the United States' fertilizer supply. The report posits that Morocco and Tunisia could significantly reduce American reliance on Chinese phosphate imports, thereby enhancing food security. This insightful paper, authored by Ghazi Ben Ahmed from the Mediterranean Development Initiative, Sabina Henneberg from the Washington Institute, and Mohsine El Ahmadi, a political sociology professor at Cadi Ayyad University in Marrakech, outlines the critical geopolitical dimensions of phosphate supply chains.
The authors argue that the Maghreb region can serve as a counterbalance to China's growing influence in the fertilizer market, particularly if the United States opts for economic partnerships that transcend mere democratic conditions. The analysis is prompted by a notable supply shock that occurred in March 2025, when Chinese phosphate exports plummeted dramatically from 950,000 tons to just 13,000 tons in a single month. By December 2025, this situation escalated further as China formally halted phosphate exports until August 2026, leading to a staggering 28% increase in diammonium phosphate prices over the year.
Morocco's Strategic Phosphate Infrastructure
The timing of this supply disruption is considered deliberate, coinciding with the U.S. Geological Survey's designation of phosphate as a critical mineral for national security. This classification underscores the notion that phosphate has evolved beyond a mere commodity; it is now viewed as vital infrastructure. The authors caution against interpreting this event as a temporary market disturbance, suggesting instead that it serves as a harbinger of potential vulnerabilities within fertilizer supply chains akin to past energy dependencies.
Domestic solutions to this issue are limited. Despite the presence of phosphate reserves in Florida, Idaho, and North Carolina, U.S. production has significantly declined over the past several decades. The report highlights that American reserves are a mere fraction compared to those of Morocco, which possesses approximately 70% of the world's known phosphate reserves. The OCP Group, Morocco's state-backed entity, has established a robust infrastructure for refining, processing, and manufacturing phosphate products, leveraging key Atlantic ports such as the Tanger Med.
The report also emphasizes Morocco's long-standing partnership with the U.S., dating back to the 1786 Treaty of Friendship. It recognizes Morocco's strategic phosphate strategy as one that transcends mere extraction, focusing instead on industrial and geopolitical advancements. Notably, Morocco has invested in agricultural technology partnerships and fertilizer access programs across West Africa to bolster food production throughout the continent. However, the authors advise against overdependence on any single supplier, even an ally, to mitigate strategic risks.
Tunisia is highlighted as a complementary partner in this initiative, with its phosphate reserves estimated at 2.5 billion metric tons. Despite facing challenges related to underinvestment and political instability, Tunisia's geographical positioning along the central Mediterranean corridor offers significant strategic advantages that could enhance its phosphate output and integration with Morocco's supply chain.
The urgency of the situation is palpable, as investments from China extend throughout North Africa, and Russian influence continues to permeate the Sahel region. The report advocates for a U.S.-backed “Phosphate-for-Infrastructure” strategy, collaborating with organizations such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank. This strategy envisions Morocco as the industrial hub while Tunisia contributes additional capacity and Mediterranean access.
While the authors acknowledge the potential for democratic backsliding in Tunisia under President Kais Saied, they urge the U.S. not to approach Tunisia solely through a lens of democratic conditionality. Instead, they frame this as a broader food security strategy that necessitates a diversified network of reliable suppliers and political alliances. Recent developments reflect this strategy in action, including the shipment of 54,000 tons of Triple Super Phosphate from Morocco to the U.S. and plans for a new phosphate fertilizer plant in Louisiana, which could significantly reduce U.S. dependence on imported phosphate.
In conclusion, the authors advocate for a comprehensive approach that consolidates Morocco's position as a global leader in fertilizer production and a strategic gateway connecting Africa, Europe, and the Atlantic. The implications of such a partnership extend beyond immediate agricultural needs, positioning the U.S. to navigate future geopolitical challenges in the fertilizer market.
As reported by moroccoworldnews.com.
