Projected Revenue and Profit Growth for Moroccan Companies
According to the latest analysis from BKGR, the overall revenue of Moroccan companies is expected to increase significantly by 13.6% in 2026, reaching an impressive 352.2 billion dirhams. Alongside this growth, operating income is projected to rise by 6.3%, nearing 96 billion dirhams. The research office notes that when adjusted for the exceptional impact related to the resolution of the IAM/Wana dispute, the growth rate of the net income attributable to shareholders (RNPG) would be approximately 13% in 2026.
Key Sectors Driving Profitability
Financial institutions are anticipated to play a pivotal role in this profit growth, contributing about 42.5% to the overall market profit increase in 2026. This expected surge is attributed to robust commercial dynamics, enhanced operational efficiency, and a decrease in risk costs. The banking sector's net banking income is forecasted to grow by 6.3% to 80.5 billion dirhams, bolstered by the rise in interest margins and fees, within a context marked by ongoing investment cycles in infrastructure, renewable energy, and export industries. Consequently, the RNPG for financial institutions is projected to increase by 10.7% to 19.7 billion dirhams in 2026, with an additional growth of 7.5% anticipated in 2027.
On the industrial front, BKGR predicts a 16% increase in sector revenue in 2026, reaching 246.2 billion dirhams, driven by several key players on the stock market. Notably, Managem is expected to benefit from the full-year impact of the Boto and Tizert projects, a favorable environment for precious metals, and the development of the Tendrara gas project, which is set to serve as a new growth driver for the group. Additionally, SGTM is likely to thrive due to a solid order book amid an acceleration of major national infrastructure projects, while Label Vie will continue to leverage the full effect of the 141 retail outlets opened in 2025 as part of its CAP 2028 expansion plan.
Looking ahead to 2027, BKGR forecasts a further 7.4% growth in industrial revenue, reaching 264.4 billion dirhams. This sustained growth is expected to be supported by SGTM, which is benefiting from a record order book, as well as Label Vie, which plans to open over 180 new stores and expand its franchise and discount store formats. Managem is also anticipated to maintain its momentum due to positive gold contributions, expected improvements in volume and metal mix, and the rollout of projects like Karita, Eteke, and Bouskour, aimed at enhancing the group’s long-term growth profile.
Moreover, BKGR estimates that the mining sector alone will account for nearly 48.1% of the overall market profit growth in 2026, supported by the ramp-up of significant projects and persistently high metal prices. The insurance sector is also projected to demonstrate strong dynamics in 2026, with a forecasted 15.1% increase in net acquired premiums to 25.5 billion dirhams, incorporating the effects of the merger between Allianz Maroc and Sanlam Maroc expected in July. On a comparable basis, growth is anticipated at 5.6%, primarily driven by the robust performance of the non-life segment related to corporate markets and the automotive sector. The sector's RNPG is expected to rise by 28.5% to 2.4 billion dirhams, bolstered by the SANLAM MAROC merger, commercial activity growth, and anticipated improvements in technical indicators.
In terms of dividends, BKGR expects an 8.4% increase in total dividend distributions in 2026, amounting to 27 billion dirhams, which would elevate the market's average yield to 2.8%, up from 2.7% in 2025. The research office also anticipates a gradual improvement in valuation levels, projecting a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 19.7x for the Scope 40 in 2026, down from 20.7x in 2025, and further declining to 18.4x in 2027, due to ongoing profit growth among listed companies alongside relatively stable market capitalization. BKGR notes that the market’s PER is expected to remain below its recent average of 20x, indicating potential for further revaluation, contingent upon the realization of the anticipated profit trajectories.
However, the analysis also highlights several risk factors that could impact these projections, including ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sustained high oil prices, disruptions in global trade, and certain fiscal risks that may affect the profitability of listed companies.
As reported by boursenews.ma.
