Spain and Morocco share a relationship that is often characterized by tension, though it is underscored by a necessary cooperation inherent to neighboring countries. This delicate balance tends to be disrupted by Rabat whenever it senses a weakness in the Spanish government, often leveraging migration pressure to its advantage. In response, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has chosen to praise the Moroccan regime rather than utilizing the various tools at his disposal to enforce reciprocity in their bilateral relations.
Having lost the strategic leverage associated with the Sahara, one of the most potent pressures that Spain could impose on Morocco involves revisiting the trade agreements established between the two nations and particularly those involving the European Union. Spain has emerged as Morocco's primary commercial partner, with annual exchanges exceeding €22.5 billion, and potentially reaching €26 billion when services are included, as highlighted on the Ministry of Economy's website.
Furthermore, Spain stands as the leading destination for Spanish investments in the African continent, amassing a total of €2.31 billion and creating over 25,000 jobs in strategic sectors such as energy, automotive, agribusiness, textiles, tourism, and infrastructure, as stated by the Ministry's website.
A Growing Imbalance in Trade Relations
While both countries have mutual interests, the trade balance increasingly favors Morocco, leading to a scenario where imports nearly equal exports each year. Should tariffs be reinstated, Morocco would risk significant losses since Spain accounts for 25% of its exports. As reported by libertaddigital.com, the importation of Moroccan products into Spain has surged by 60% since Sánchez took office, thereby increasing Spain's dependency on its neighbor. Moreover, Spain facilitates the transit of goods to the rest of the EU, which has maintained a free trade agreement with Rabat since the year 2000.
Morocco also receives approximately €7 billion in aid and loans from Europe, with over €1 billion originating from Spain, according to data from the Foreign Ministry. Additionally, Spain finances critical infrastructure and sectors in Morocco, aiming to sustain a balance in relations that Rabat disrupted three weeks ago with the influx of 70,000 individuals into Ceuta.
The Implications of the 2030 World Cup
Compounding these interests is the upcoming organization of the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which involves collaboration with Morocco facilitated by the Sánchez government. There are doubts regarding whether the final could take place in Casablanca if Spain does not intervene. As one of the significant powers in football, any strategic move in this context could prove crucial. Political parties like Vox and Sumar have already called for Morocco's removal as a co-host in response to the recent incursion into Spanish territory, which could inflict severe economic damage on Morocco.
