The recent influx of over 70,000 migrants into Ceuta, which occurred after they crossed the border from Morocco on July 30, has significantly heightened the already fragile diplomatic relations between Madrid and Rabat. Just three days following this unprecedented event, the Moroccan government distanced itself from the situation, attributing the responsibility for the mass entry to criminal networks and the misinformation circulating on social media stemming from a ruling by the Supreme Court against the practice of 'hot returns' of migrants who manage to swim into Spanish territory. The Spanish government, led by Pedro Sánchez, also supported this narrative, deliberately avoiding direct accusations against its neighboring country for an incident that, while remarkable in scale, is not entirely new in nature.
Five years ago, in May 2021, over ten thousand individuals similarly crossed into Ceuta from Morocco. The timing was not coincidental; diplomatic relations between the Moroccan monarchy and the Spanish government had sharply deteriorated after Sánchez permitted the transfer of Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario Front, to a hospital in La Rioja just a month prior. This apparent act of revenge led Moroccan security forces stationed at the border to relax control measures, facilitating the mass entry of irregular migrants.
In the aftermath of this incident, Sánchez surprised many by altering Spain's long-held neutral stance on Western Sahara, now backing Morocco's sovereignty over the territory. This shift in policy raised eyebrows among Sánchez's coalition partners, Podemos, but it helped mend relations between Madrid and Rabat to what was described as an "excellent" state during a summit in December, where fourteen cooperation agreements were signed.
However, with the recent surge of migrants on July 30, the relationship has once again been put to the test. Morocco has seized this opportunity to once again question the "Spanishness" of Ceuta and Melilla, threatening to suspend extradition agreements and criticizing Sánchez's migrant regularization efforts, which have also drawn ire from various European partners of Spain. In light of these criticisms, Sánchez and his ministers have largely opted for silence. Despite the likelihood that Morocco facilitated the entry of over 70,000 migrants, government officials continue to assert that Rabat is an "absolutely reliable" partner in the fight against irregular migration. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska emphasized during his visit to the autonomous city that this situation poses no threat to Ceuta or the rest of Spain.
But is this truly the case? Is Morocco a trustworthy ally for Spain? What accounts for the apparent reluctance of the Spanish government to criticize Rabat? How should the relations between the two nations be directed following this latest incident? In our analysis, we consulted various experts in international relations to dissect the current situation.
A Volatile Mix
Pedro Francisco Ramos Josa, a professor of International Relations at the International University of Valencia, noted that a series of adverse conditions for Spain have been skillfully exploited by the Moroccan government, which has assessed Spain's vulnerabilities accurately. He argues that Sánchez's government's weakness on the international front, coupled with limited defense spending and a waning trust from a strategic ally like the United States—now strengthening ties with Morocco—have contributed to this crisis. "Seventy thousand people do not cross a border freely. There has to be a degree of permission involved. Morocco was aware that the Spanish government had neither the capacity nor the desire to respond to such a scenario," he stated.
Moreover, this migration crisis appears to send a clear message to the European Union, with which Morocco has numerous political and economic interests. Ramos Josa pointed out, "They know that what occurs in Spain reverberates throughout the EU." At the same time, he acknowledged that the situation starkly reveals the harsh social realities within Morocco itself. "The fact that the population is willing to leave their country, risking their lives in the process, does not reflect well on any regime. What happened in Ceuta was undoubtedly a geopolitical success for Morocco, but socially, the implications are less favorable," he explained.
Ernesto Pascual, a doctor in political science and international relations, added additional layers to this complex scenario. He highlighted Morocco's anger over Sánchez's visit to Algeria on July 20, a nation Morocco considers a mortal enemy, and the approval of a congressional bill granting Spanish citizenship to Sahrawis born during the time of Spanish colonial rule. "Both events likely displeased Rabat and could have influenced the mass entry of migrants, although proving this is challenging," he noted.
Washington's Influence
The pressing question remains: what diplomatic strategy should Spain adopt in the coming months to prevent a repeat of incidents like the one on July 30? Ramos Josa advocates for seeking closer ties with the Trump administration, despite the potential electoral backlash for Sánchez. "The U.S. is strengthening its ties with Morocco, and anything that benefits Rabat tends to harm Spain. A new government might help ease relations with Washington, but it's certain that the U.S.-Morocco relationship will remain strong," he argued. He also cautioned that any attempt to reconcile with Algeria would further antagonize Spain's neighbor.
Pascual emphasized that the interdependence between Spain and Morocco makes any rupture unlikely. "Neither side has an interest in that outcome," he asserted. He downplayed the critical or threatening rhetoric emanating from Morocco, suggesting it doesn't represent the entire government. "We have the Moroccan Justice Minister discussing recovering Ceuta and Melilla and potentially breaking the extradition agreement, but then we also have the Foreign Minister adopting a much friendlier tone. As is true in any nation, there is no singular discourse," he concluded.
As reported by huffingtonpost.es.
