Recent statistics reveal a decline in Tunisia's unemployment rate to 14.9%, prompting serious questions regarding the implications of this reduction and whether it genuinely reflects an improvement in the employment situation. It is essential to recognize that a decrease in the unemployment rate does not necessarily indicate the creation of new jobs; rather, it can coincide with a segment of job seekers exiting the labor market, either due to despair in finding work or as a result of emigration. In this context, economist Ridha Chakandali highlights a paradox: while the unemployment rate has decreased, thousands of jobs have been lost, and the number of active workers has diminished. He emphasizes that interpreting labor market statistics requires a holistic view, considering various indicators rather than focusing solely on the unemployment rate.
Chakandali argues that the decline in the unemployment rate during the second quarter of 2026 cannot be viewed as a sign of improved economic performance or successful policies in job creation. He stresses that the fall to 14.9% does not imply that the Tunisian economy has become more capable of generating employment opportunities. Rather, part of this decline is linked to the withdrawal of many Tunisians from the labor market, either due to hopelessness in finding a job or opting to leave the country in search of better opportunities. He clarifies that analyzing unemployment indicators should not be limited to the reported percentage; it should also be connected to the changes in the number of active workers and the jobs created during the same period. Notably, the national economy lost approximately 58,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, while the active population decreased by about 77,500 individuals, falling from approximately 4.26 million to around 4.19 million.
This data raises a critical question about the reasons behind the declining unemployment rate: Did unemployment decrease because the economy created new jobs, or because a portion of job seekers left the labor market? Chakandali points out that a reduction in the number of job seekers can mathematically lead to a drop in the unemployment rate, even if the actual employment level does not improve. Consequently, this indicator alone is insufficient to accurately assess the economic and social situation.
Furthermore, Chakandali observes that this trend reflects a growing sense of frustration among certain youth demographics, particularly those who have not found opportunities that match their qualifications and aspirations. He notes that a young person who loses hope in finding a job may cease their job search, thereby no longer being classified as unemployed according to statistical methodologies. Additionally, they may choose to emigrate, contributing to a decline in the active population. In such cases, a decrease in unemployment does not necessarily translate to positive news, as the drop may stem from a shrinking workforce rather than an expansion of the economy's capacity to create jobs. According to Chakandali, the core issue is not merely the unemployment rate but rather the economy's ability to retain active workers, accommodate newcomers to the labor market, and generate value-added job opportunities.
Moreover, the economist emphasizes that the simultaneous loss of jobs alongside a declining number of active workers reveals a paradox that warrants attention. He asserts that economic indicators should not be analyzed in isolation; an economy that generates wealth and job opportunities is expected to witness an increase in employment levels and be capable of absorbing new job seekers, rather than experiencing a drop in active numbers due to lost hope or emigration. A comprehensive evaluation of the labor market necessitates consideration of multiple indicators, including the number of job opportunities, labor force participation rates, the number of active individuals, and the nature of jobs being created, as well as the sectors attracting labor. Chakandali also highlights the rising unemployment rate among university graduates, indicating that this increase signifies a deeper crisis beyond mere fluctuations in the overall unemployment rate. According to his data, the unemployment rate among university graduates rose from 24% in the second quarter of 2025 to 26.6% during the same period in 2026.
In diagnosing the causes of the crisis, Chakandali suggests that the Tunisian economy suffers from a lack of investment, particularly private investment capable of generating sustainable wealth and job opportunities. He argues that the state 'is doing to itself what an enemy would not do to its adversary' by implementing economic policies that fail to provide a conducive environment for investment. The central issue lies in the unattractiveness of the business and investment climate, exacerbated by fluctuating economic policies, an array of administrative procedures, and complexities hindering investors, coupled with difficulties in conducting business. Chakandali underscores that the decline in investment as a percentage of GDP represents one of the most significant indicators of the challenges confronting the economy. He clarifies that sustainable wealth creation cannot occur without investments that enhance firms, boost productivity, and generate new jobs.
Ultimately, the employment crisis is intertwined with the very nature of economic growth and its capacity to create stable and productive jobs that meet the aspirations of the youth. If the decline in unemployment occurs concurrently with job losses and a reduction in the number of active workers, it cannot be considered a sufficient indicator of recovery. Chakandali concludes that Tunisia needs an economic policy that positions private sector investment as a fundamental driver of growth. He warns that the continuation of this situation may exacerbate the phenomenon of skilled labor and youth emigration, particularly given the widening gap between educational attainment and the opportunities available in the labor market.
Thus, the decrease in unemployment amid job losses and a shrinking active population necessitates a different interpretation of the data, as a falling rate may conceal an increasing withdrawal from the labor market and emigration of skilled individuals and youth—indicators that reflect the depth of the economic and social crisis more than they signify an actual recovery of the economy.
As reported by ar.lemaghreb.tn.
